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A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"

  • Mundaca, Gabriela

    ()

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

This paper shows why regressing the realised rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band on a given information set and conditional on (ex-post) actual no-realignment (à la drift adjustment) still encounters a "Peso Problem". Such a procedure generally gives inconsistent estimates. The main reason is that the frequency of realignments in the data need no coincide with the frequency of the subjective (even small) probabilities that a realignment may take place. These probabilities cause jumps in the exchange rate even when it is conditional on actual no-realignment. When using an alternative approach that takes care of the peso problem and provides consistent estimates of the expected rate of realignment, we find that our estimates of the expected realignment (devaluation) rates are always greater than the ones obtained using the drift adjustment method.

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File URL: http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2002/Memo-16-2002.pdf
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Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 16/2002.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 17 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Economica, 2004, pages 13-37.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2002_016
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway

Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
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