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Currency Option Pricing in Credible Target Zones

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  • Dumas, B.
  • Jennergren, L.P.
  • Naslund, B.

Abstract

This paper develops a model for valuing options on a currency which is maintained within a band. The starting point of our model is the well known Krugman model for exchange-rate behavior within a target zone. Results from model runs provide insight into evidence reported by other authors of mispricing of currency options by extensions of the Black-Scholes model.
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Suggested Citation

  • Dumas, B. & Jennergren, L.P. & Naslund, B., 1993. "Currency Option Pricing in Credible Target Zones," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-7, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:pennif:93-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1991. "The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1367-1372.
    2. Delgado, F. & Dumas, B., 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks And The Design Of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones," Weiss Center Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "Target zones and interest rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 27-54, August.
    4. Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks and the Design of SustainableExchange-Rate Zones," NBER Working Papers 3440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977 Elsevier.
    6. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    7. Eduardo R. Borensztein & Michael P. Dooley, 1987. "Options on Foreign Exchange and Exchange Rate Expectations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(4), pages 643-680, December.
    8. Lindberg, H. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Testing the Basic Target Zone Model on Swedish Data," Papers 488, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    9. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    10. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
    11. Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
    12. Philippe Jorion, 1988. "On Jump Processes in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 427-445.
    13. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    14. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
    15. Lindbecg, H. Soderlind, P., 1992. "Target Zone Models and the Intervention Policy; The Swedish Case," Papers 496, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    16. Bernard Dumas & Lars Peter Jennergren & Bertil Näslund, 1992. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," Working Papers hal-00611598, HAL.
    17. Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, "undated". "Monetary Contracting between Central Banks and the Design of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones (Reprint 035)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    18. Bodurtha, James N. & Courtadon, Georges R., 1987. "Tests of an American Option Pricing Model on the Foreign Currency Options Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 153-167, June.
    19. Delgado, F. & Dumas, B., 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks And The Design Of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 360, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    20. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Mordecai Avriel & Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv, 2013. "Inflation Derivatives Under Inflation Target Regimes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(10), pages 911-938, October.
    3. Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October.
    4. Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
    5. Naszódi, Anna, 2002. "A sávos árfolyamú deviza megközelítése opciók segítségével
      [The option-based description of the exchange rate in a target-zone system]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 25-44.
    6. Ekvall, Niklas & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1997. "Currency option pricing with mean reversion and uncovered interest parity: A revision of the Garman-Kohlhagen model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 41-59, July.
    7. Naszódi, Anna, 2004. "A sáveltolás árfolyamhatásának vizsgálata opciós modell keretei között
      [Target-zone rearrangement and exchange-rate behaviour in an options-based model]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 638-658.
    8. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "The Effectiveness of the FX Market Interventions of the Bundesbank During the Louvre Period: An Options-Based Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 971, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. Fathi Abid & Moncef Habibi, 2010. "Hedging Transaction Exposure within the Context of a Basket Foreign Exchange Rate Arrangement," Working Papers 523, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Jan 2010.
    10. Dibeh, Ghassan, 2006. "Target zone dynamics where the fundamental follows a SDE with periodic forcing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 363(2), pages 437-445.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate ; financial policy;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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