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Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones

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  • Zhaohui Chen
  • Alberto Giovannini

Abstract

This paper develops a simple econometric procedure for estimating expected exchange rate under target zones. We employ the linear projection methodology to make predictions without relying on any prior structural or distributional assumptions, and at the same time demonstrate that such a methodology has to be modified in an important way to account for the presence of the fluctuation band. Our empirical results show that the band effect is nontrivial for narrow target zones such as the Bretton Woods system. We also develop a method to estimate the shapes of the unconditional distributions of exchange rates under target zones. The empirical results show that the unconditional distributions of exchange rates can take several different shapes, which may correspond to possibly widely different monetary and exchange-rate intervention policies. We also show how to use the projection equations and the information about the band to test the credibility of the exchange rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3955
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    Cited by:

    1. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 2013. "Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 449-489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ulf Söderström & Alexis Stenfors, 1995. "Explaining devaluation expectations in the EMS," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 63-81, Autumn.
    4. Galindo, Arturo J., 2000. "Estimating credibility in Colombia's exchange-rate target zone," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 473-484, December.
    5. Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1997. "The determinants of realignment expectations under the EMS: Some empirical regularities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1687-1707, December.
    6. Vajanne, Laura, . "The Exchange Rate Under Target Zones," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 16.
    7. Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia, 1999. "Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2000004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    8. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
    9. Christopher J. Neely, 1994. "Realignments of target zone exchange systems: what do we know?," Working Papers 1994-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
    11. Elias Belessakos & Michael Papaioannou, 1996. "Simple credibility tests of the ERM bands for the pound sterling and the Italian lira," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 219-236, July.
    12. Girardin, Eric & Marimoutou, Velayoudom, 1997. "Estimating the credibility of an exchange rate target zone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 931-944, December.
    13. Velayoudom Marimoutou & Éric Girardin, 1994. "Problèmes d'évaluation de la crédibilité d'une zone cible de change," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 501-514.
    14. Olavi Rantala, 1992. "An econometric diffusion model of exchange rate movements within a band : implications for interest rate differential and credibility of exchange rate policy," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 98-109, Autumn.
    15. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    16. Alberto Carrasquilla & Arturo Galindo A., 1995. "Consideraciones Sobre El Comportamiento De La Tasa De Cambio Al Interior De Las Bandas," Borradores de Economia 2190, Banco de la Republica.
    17. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS: Some Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 4291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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