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Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS


  • Svensson, L.E.


The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutschmark, for the period March 1979 - May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is non-trivial because exchange rates within ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behaviour. The adjustment is essential since expected rates of depreciation within the band are usually of about the same magnitude as interest rate differentials.
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Suggested Citation

  • Svensson, L.E., 1991. "Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS," Papers 493, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:stocin:493

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Burdett, Kenneth & Mortensen, Dale T, 1980. "Search, Layoffs, and Labor Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 652-672, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991," NBER Working Papers 3918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Bretton Woods and Its Precursors: Rules Versus Discretion in the History of International Monetary Regimes," NBER Working Papers 4001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jean-Pierre Laffargue & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, 1992. "Anticipations stabilisatrices dans un système de serpent monétaire. Théorie et application au système monétaire européen," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(6), pages 1107-1128.
    4. Antoine Magnier, 1992. "Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 87-113.
    5. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Feijó Filho, Cypriano Lopes, 1994. "Bandas de cambio : teoria, evidencia empirica e sua possivel aplicação no Brasil," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 234, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    6. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Milind M. Shrikhande, 1997. "The cost of doing business abroad and international capital market equilibrium," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan, 1995. "Adjustable pegs vs. single currencies: How valuable is the option to realign?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1155-1170, June.
    9. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS: Some Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 4291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May.
    11. Olavi Rantala, 1992. "An econometric diffusion model of exchange rate movements within a band : implications for interest rate differential and credibility of exchange rate policy," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 98-109, Autumn.

    More about this item


    currencies ; interest rate ; exchange rate ; behaviour;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions


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