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The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data

  • Lars E.O. Svensson

The term structure of interest rate differentials is derived in a model of a small open economy with a target zone exchange rate regime. The target zone is modeled as a regulated Brownian motion. The interest rate differentials are computed as the solution to a parabolic partial differential equation with derivative boundary conditions, both via a Fourier-series analytical solution and via a direct numerical solution. Several specific properties of the term structure of interest rate differentials are derived. For instance, for given time to maturity the interest rate differential is decreasing in the exchange rate, and for given exchange rate the interest rate differential's absolute value and its instantaneous variability are both decreasing in the time to maturity. Devaluation/realignment risks are incorporated and imply upward shifts of the interest rate differentials. Some implications of the theory are found to be broadly consistent with data on Swedish exchange rates and interest differentials for the period 1986-1989.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3374.

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Date of creation: Jun 1990
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Publication status: published as Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 28, pp. 87-116, (1991).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3374
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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  3. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1990. "Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability," IMF Working Papers 90/31, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Miller, M. & Weller, P., 1988. "Solving Stochastic Saddlepoint Systems: A Qualitative Treatment With Economic Applications," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 309, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  7. Delgado, F. & Dumas, B., 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks And The Design Of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 360, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  8. Bernard Dumas, . "Pricing Physical Assets Internationally: A Non Linear Heteroskedastic Process for Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 25-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  9. Bernard Dumas, 1989. "Pricing Physical Assets Internationnaly: A Non linear Heteroskedastic Process for Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers hal-00612624, HAL.
  10. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach," NBER Working Papers 2835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Robert E. Cumby & John Huizinga, 1983. "Two-Step Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, . "Monetary Contracting between Central Banks and the Design of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones (Reprint 035)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  14. Paul R. Krugman, 1987. "Trigger Strategies and Price Dynamics in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 2459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bernard Dumas, . "Perishable Investment and Hysteresis in Capital Formation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 44-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  16. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," NBER Working Papers 2998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  18. Delgado, F. & Dumas, B., 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks And The Design Of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones," Weiss Center Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  19. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1989. "The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks and the Design of SustainableExchange-Rate Zones," NBER Working Papers 3440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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