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Rational Speculative Bubbles In An Exchange Rate Target Zone

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  • Buiter, Willem H.
  • Pesenti, Paolo A.

Abstract

The recent theory of exchange rate dynamics within a target zone holds that exchange rates under a currency bard are less responsive to fundamental shocks than exchange rates under a free float, provided that the intervention rules of the Central Bank(s) are common knowledge. These results are derived after having assumed a priori that excess volatility due to rational bubbles does not occur in the foreign exchange market. In this paper we consider instead a setup in which the existence of speculative behavior is a datum the Central Bank has to deal with. We show that the defense of the target zone in the presence of bubbles is viable if the Central Bank accommodates speculative attacks when the latter are consistent with the survival of the target zone itself and expectations are self-fulfilling. These results hold for a large class of exogenous and fundamental-dependent bubble processes. We show that the instantaneous volatility of exchange rates within a bard is not necessarily less than the volatility under free float and analyze the implications for interest rate differential dynamics.
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Suggested Citation

  • Buiter, Willem H. & Pesenti, Paolo A., 1990. "Rational Speculative Bubbles In An Exchange Rate Target Zone," Economic Research Papers 268490, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:268490
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.268490
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    2. Buch, Claudia M. & Koop, Michael J. & Schweickert, Rainer & Wolf, Hartmut, 1995. "Währungsreformen im Vergleich: monetäre Strategien in Rußland, Weißrußland, Estland und der Ukraine," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 831, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Dorofeev Evgeny, 2001. "Economic Factors Influence on the Russian Capital Market Behavior," EERC Working Paper Series 2k/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    4. Jean-Pierre Laffargue & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, 1992. "Anticipations stabilisatrices dans un système de serpent monétaire. Théorie et application au système monétaire européen," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(6), pages 1107-1128.
    5. Antoine Magnier, 1992. "Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 87-113.
    6. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Feijó Filho, Cypriano Lopes, 1994. "Bandas de cambio : teoria, evidencia empirica e sua possivel aplicação no Brasil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 234, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    7. van Norden, Simon, 1996. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-251, May-June.

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