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Rational Speculative Bubbles in an Exchange Rate Target Zone

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  • Buiter, Willem H.
  • Pesenti, Paolo

Abstract

The recent theory of exchange rate dynamics within a target zone holds that exchange rates under a currency band are less responsive to fundamental shocks than exchange rates under a free float, provided that the intervention rules of the Central Bank(s) are common knowledge. These results are derived after having assumed a priori that excess volatility due to rational bubbles does not occur in the foreign exchange market. In this paper we consider instead a set-up in which the existence of speculative behaviour is a datum with which the central bank has to deal. We show that the defence of the target zone in the presence of bubbles is viable if the Central Bank accommodates speculative attacks when the latter are consistent with the survival of the target zone itself and expectations are self-fulfilling. We show that the instantaneous volatility of exchange rates within a bank is not necessarily less than the volatility under free float. There need not be a constant tradeoff between the volatility of the change in the exchange rate and the volatility of the change in the interest rate differential. Fundamental-dependent bubbles can account for the excess response of the exchange rate to the fundamental. The relationship between the exchange rate and the interest differential need not be negative, even if the target zone is fully credible.

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  • Buiter, Willem H. & Pesenti, Paolo, 1990. "Rational Speculative Bubbles in an Exchange Rate Target Zone," CEPR Discussion Papers 479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:479
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    2. van Norden, Simon, 1996. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-251, May-June.
    3. Jean-Pierre Laffargue & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, 1992. "Anticipations stabilisatrices dans un système de serpent monétaire. Théorie et application au système monétaire européen," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(6), pages 1107-1128.
    4. Antoine Magnier, 1992. "Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 87-113.
    5. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Feijó Filho, Cypriano Lopes, 1994. "Bandas de cambio : teoria, evidencia empirica e sua possivel aplicação no Brasil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 234, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Buch, Claudia M. & Koop, Michael J. & Schweickert, Rainer & Wolf, Hartmut, 1995. "Währungsreformen im Vergleich: monetäre Strategien in Rußland, Weißrußland, Estland und der Ukraine," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 831, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Dorofeev Evgeny, 2001. "Economic Factors Influence on the Russian Capital Market Behavior," EERC Working Paper Series 2k/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.

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