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The determinants of realignment expectations under the EMS: Some empirical regularities

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  • Chen, Zhaohui
  • Giovannini, Alberto

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  • Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1997. "The determinants of realignment expectations under the EMS: Some empirical regularities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1687-1707, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:41:y:1997:i:9:p:1687-1707
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
    2. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    3. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Working Papers 93/1, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    5. Alberto Giovannini, 1990. "European Monetary Reform: Progress and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 217-292.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1983. "Trying to Stabilize: Some Theoretical Reflections Based on the Case of Argentina," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, pages 199-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lizondo, Jose Saul, 1983. "Foreign exchange futures prices under fixed exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 69-84, February.
    8. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
    10. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    12. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January.
    13. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    14. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "Stabilization policies in developing countries: What have we learned?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 701-708, September.
    15. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    16. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 567-583, September.
    18. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24.
    19. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
    2. Peter Tillmann, 2003. "The Regime-Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4, pages 409-431, November.
    3. Bodea, Cristina, 2015. "Fixed exchange rates with escape clauses: The political determinants of the European Monetary System realignments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 25-40.
    4. Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2004. "Capital flows and speculative attacks in prospective EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(3), pages 559-586, September.
    5. Rangvid, Jesper & Sorensen, Carsten, 2001. "Determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1665-1696, October.
    6. Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2005. "EU Enlargement, ERM II and Lessons from the Southern European countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78.

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