IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Capital flows and speculative attacks in prospective EU member states

  • Heather D. Gibson
  • Euclid Tsakalotos

This paper examines the capital flow experience of transition economies which are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership. We show that they have been experiencing fairly sizeable capital flows since the early 1990s. We explain these flows using two separate models. The first explains the level of capital flows using panel data from the prospective EU members. The second concentrates specifically on estimating the probability of a country experiencing downward speculative pressure. In both cases, the contribution of domestic factors and contagion is explored. The results suggest that, while domestic factors have some role to play, it is rather limited. Moreover, there is clear evidence of contagion effects, suggesting that macroeconomic policy in the prospective EU members will be complicated by capital flows in the run up to euro area membership. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2004.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=ecot&volume=12&issue=3&year=2004&part=null
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal Economics of Transition.

Volume (Year): 12 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 559-586

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:12:y:2004:i:3:p:559-586
Contact details of provider: Postal: One Exchange Square, London EC2A 2JN
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0967-0750

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0967-0750

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Dickerson, Andrew P. & Gibson, Heather D. & Tsakalotos, Euclid, 2002. "Takeover risk and the market for corporate control: the experience of British firms in the 1970s and 1980s," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1167-1195, October.
  2. Heather D. Gibson, 2003. "Realignment probabilities and reputation effects in the EMS," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 314-335, April.
  3. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Edin, P.A. & Bergstrom, R., 1991. "Time aggregation and the Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration," Papers 1991u, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  5. Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Papers 1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  6. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July.
  7. Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1997. "The determinants of realignment expectations under the EMS: Some empirical regularities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1687-1707, December.
  8. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September.
  9. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  10. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
  11. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
  12. Yuko Kinoshita & Nauro F. Campos, 2003. "Why Does Fdi Go Where It Goes? New Evidence From The Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-573, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  13. Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521495479 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
  16. Juan Ayuso & Maria Perez-Jurado, 1997. "Devaluations and depreciation expectations in the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 471-484.
  17. Stanislaw Gomulka, 1998. "Managing capital flows in Poland, 1995-98," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 6(2), pages 389-396, November.
  18. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-19, March.
  19. Hans Peter Lankes & Nicholas Stern & W Michael Blumenthal & Jiri Weigl, 1999. "Capital Flows to Eastern Europe," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 57-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:12:y:2004:i:3:p:559-586. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.