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Realignment probabilities and reputation effects in the EMS

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  • Heather D. Gibson

Abstract

This paper examines the existence of reputation effects in the EMS and their impact on the probability of realignment. By reputation effects we mean effects which, controlling for all other determinants of realignment, reduce the probability of realignment simply because the monetary authorities have avoided realignment in the past. Our results provide support for the idea that realignments are dependent on macroeconomic conditions, as suggested by theory, and hence a country's participation in a target zone system could become more credible if macroeconomic conditions are improved. There is less evidence, however, of an independent role for reputation effects. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Heather D. Gibson, 2003. "Realignment probabilities and reputation effects in the EMS," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 314-335, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:55:y:2003:i:2:p:314-335
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    Cited by:

    1. Heather D. Gibson & Thomas Vlassopoulo, 2007. "Capital Folws, capital account liberalisation and the southern Mediterranean countries," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 60(241), pages 137-165.
    2. Tassos Anastasatos & Constantina Manou, 2008. "Speculative Attacks on the Drachma and the Changeover to the Euro," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 31, pages 49-77, November.
    3. Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2004. "Capital flows and speculative attacks in prospective EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(3), pages 559-586, September.
    4. Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2005. "EU Enlargement, ERM II and Lessons from the Southern European countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78.
    5. Heather D. Gibson & Nicholas T. Tsaveas & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2006. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Liberalisation and the Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 33, Bank of Greece.

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