Capital Flows and Speculative Attacks in Prospective EU Member States
This paper examines the capital flow experience of transition economies who are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership. We show that they have been experiencing fairly sizeable capital flows since the early 1990s. We explain these flows using two separate models. The first explains the level of capital flows using panel data from the prospective EU members. The second concentrates specifically on estimating the probability of a country experiencing downward speculative pressure. In both cases, the contribution of domestic factors and contagion is explored. The results suggest that while domestic factors have some role to play, it is rather limited. Moreover there is clear evidence of contagion effects, suggesting that macroeconomic policy in the prospective EU members will be complicated by capital flows in the run up to euro area membership.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Economics of Transition, 2004, 12 (3), pp.559-586.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.bankofgreece.gr|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991.
"Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries,"
1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
- Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1997. "The determinants of realignment expectations under the EMS: Some empirical regularities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1687-1707, December.
- Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
- Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999.
"Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 1999. "Do capital controls influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
- Campos, Nauro F & Kinoshita, Yuko, 2003.
"Why Does FDI Go Where it Goes? New Evidence from the Transitional Economies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3984, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yuko Kinoshita & Nauro F. Campos, 2003. "Why Does Fdi Go Where It Goes? New Evidence From The Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-573, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Buiter,Willem H. & Corsetti,Giancarlo & Pesenti,Paolo A., 2001.
"Financial Markets and European Monetary Cooperation,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521794404.
- Buiter,Willem H. & Corsetti,Giancarlo & Pesenti,Paolo A., 1998. "Financial Markets and European Monetary Cooperation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521495479.
- Stanislaw Gomulka, 1998. "Managing capital flows in Poland, 1995-98," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 6(2), pages 389-396, November.
- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bruce D. Meyer, 1988.
"Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells,"
NBER Working Papers
2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hans Peter Lankes & Nicholas Stern & W Michael Blumenthal & Jiri Weigl, 1999. "Capital Flows to Eastern Europe," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 57-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-19, March.
- Juan Ayuso & Maria Perez-Jurado, 1997. "Devaluations and depreciation expectations in the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 471-484.
- Yuko Kinoshita & Nauro F. Campos, 2003. "Why Does Fdi Go Where it Goes? New Evidence From the Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/228, International Monetary Fund.
- Ramon Moreno, 1995.
"Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
- Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Dickerson, Andrew P. & Gibson, Heather D. & Tsakalotos, Euclid, 2002.
"Takeover risk and the market for corporate control: the experience of British firms in the 1970s and 1980s,"
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1167-1195, October.
- Andrew P. Dickerson & Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 1998. "Takeover Risk and the Market for Corporate Control: The Experience of British Firms in the 1970s and 1980s," Studies in Economics 9803, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Edin, P.A. & Bergstrom, R., 1991.
"Time aggregation and the Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration,"
1991u, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Bergstrom, R & Edin, P-A, 1992. "Time Aggregation and the Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 5-30, Jan.-Marc.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September.
- Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Heather D. Gibson, 2003. "Realignment probabilities and reputation effects in the EMS," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 314-335, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.