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How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study Using Multiple-Response Models

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  • Tassos G. Anastasatos

    () (Bank of Greece and Business School, University of Loughborough)

  • Ian R. Davidson

    (Business School, University of Loughborough)

Abstract

This paper presents evidence that currency episodes display heterogeneity in terms of their evolution, their impact on the inflicted economy and their links with financial, political and macroeconomic fundamentals. Limited-dependent variable models for ordered and unordered outcomes along with their heteroskedastic and random effects extensions are applied to a large panel of data comprising 40 years of monthly observations on 23 developed countries. Heterogeneity, complemented by indications of self-fulfilling expectations and noise, suggest that time and region specific predictive approaches and policy responses are more useful than trying to base analysis and policy decisions on more general patterns. Results are established with formal specification tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Tassos G. Anastasatos & Ian R. Davidson, 2006. "How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study Using Multiple-Response Models," Working Papers 52, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Apostolides, Alexander, 2008. "“How Similar to South-Eastern Europe were the Islands of Cyprus and Malta in terms of Agricultural Output and Credit? Evidence during the Interwar Period”," MPRA Paper 9968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Stephan Barisitz, 2008. "Banking Transformation (1989 - 2006) in Central and Eastern Europe - With Special Reference to Balkans," Working Papers 78, Bank of Greece.
    3. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Manthos D. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2008. "Exploring the nexus between banking sector reform and performance: Evidence from newly acceded EU countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2674-2683, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; Currency crises; speculative pressure; exchange rate; devaluation; Limited-dependent variable models;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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