Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs
This paper is a theoretical and empirical investigation into the duration of exchange-rate pegs. The theoretical model considers a policy-maker who must trade off the economic costs of real exchange- rate misalignment against the political cost of realignment. The optimal time to spend on a peg is derived and factors that influence peg duration are identified. The predictions of the model are tested using logit analysis with a data set of exchange-rate pegs for sixteen Latin American countries and Jamaica during the 1957-1991 period. We find that the real exchange rate is a significant determinant of the likelihood of a devaluation. Structural variables, such as the openness of the economy and its geographical trade concentration, also significantly affect the likelihood of a devaluation. Finally, political events that change the political cost of realignment, such as regular and irregular executive transfers, are empirically important determinants of the likelihood of a devaluation.
|Date of creation:||Feb 1994|
|Publication status:||published as Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 54, no. 2 (December 1997): 387-404.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
- Goldberg, Linda S., 1994.
"Predicting exchange rate crises : Mexico revisited,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 413-430, May.
- Goldberg, Linda S., 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," Working Papers 90-11, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Linda S. Goldberg, 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," NBER Working Papers 3320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1993. "Trade Liberalization in Disinflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 832, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dani Rodrik, 1993. "Trade Liberalization in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 4419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
- Heller, H Robert, 1978. "Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 308-321, August.
- Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1994. "The Size and Timing of Devaluations in Capital-Controlled Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 4957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2006. "Value-Added Tax," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0608, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Wyplosz, Charles, 1986. "Capital controls and balance of payments crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 167-179, June.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Samuel Kortum, 1994. "A Model of Research, Patenting, and Productivity Growth," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 37, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Holden, Paul & Holden, Merle & Suss, Esther C, 1979. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 327-333, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4651. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.