A random coefficient model of speculative attacks: The case of the Mexican peso
A considerable body of theoretical and empirical literature has developed seeking to explain the timing, magnitude, and mechanics of speculative attacks against currencies. This paper extends the empirical specification of the traditional speculative attack model by developing a random coefficient (RC) model which, as we show, encompasses a variety of fixed-coefficient models as special cases. Two classes of models (fixed- and random-coefficient models) are estimated for the case of Mexican peso over the period January 1988 to Novemeber 1994, while forecasts of the peso/U.S. dollar exchange rate are generated for the period December 1994 through December 1995. The comparison of forecast errors generated by five model specifications indicates that forecasts based on the RC procedures are superior to those based on the fixed-coefficient estimation. It is also shown that there are good theoretical reasons why the RC procedure performs better in prediction than the fixed-coefficient procedure. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996
Volume (Year): 7 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/international+economics/journal/11079/PS2|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993.
"Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-175, January.
- Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Papers 1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Stephen W. Salant & Dale W. Henderson, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Swamy, P A V B & Tavlas, George S, 1995. " Random Coefficient Models: Theory and Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 165-196, June.
- P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 1993. "Random coefficient models: theory and applications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
- Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tinsley, P. A., 1980. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-142, February.
- P. A. V. B. Swamy & Peter A. Tinsley, 1976. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Special Studies Papers 78, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-648, August.
- P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 1990. "Is it possible to find an econometric law that works well in explanation and prediction? The case of Australian money demand," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
- Goldberg, Linda S., 1994. "Predicting exchange rate crises : Mexico revisited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 413-430, May.
- Goldberg, Linda S., 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," Working Papers 90-11, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Linda S. Goldberg, 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," NBER Working Papers 3320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-144, June.
- Canarellsal, Giorgio & Pollard, Stephen K. & Lai, Kon S., 1990. "Cointegration between exchange rates and relative prices: another view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1303-1322, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:1:p:553-571. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.