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Speculation and the Decision to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime

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  • Pastine, Ivan

Abstract

This Paper demonstrates that the implications of first-generation speculative attack models do not hold if there is a rational, forward-looking policy maker. The policy maker will be able to avoid predictable speculative attacks by introducing uncertainty into the decisions of speculators. This changes the sudden attack into a prolonged period of increasing speculation and uncertainty. In addition, the model provides useful insights into the viability of temporary nominal anchor policies, and a theoretical foundation for a useful empirical methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Pastine, Ivan, 2001. "Speculation and the Decision to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime," CEPR Discussion Papers 2893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2893
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Schabert & Sweder J G van Wijnbergen, 2014. "Sovereign Default and the Stability of Inflation-Targeting Regimes," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(2), pages 261-287, June.
    2. Yuk-shing CHENG & Chi-shing CHAN & Chor-yiu SIN, 2004. "Currency attack/defense with two-sided private information," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 395, Econometric Society.
    3. Broner, Fernando A., 2008. "Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 592-605, April.
    4. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2008. "Vulnerability of Currency Pegs: Evidence from Brazil," CEP Discussion Papers dp0871, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Wang, Jian, 2010. "Home bias, exchange rate disconnect, and optimal exchange rate policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 55-78, February.
    6. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2005. "Market Expectations and Currency Crises: Theory and Empirics," 2005 Meeting Papers 174, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2006. "Dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 141-158, January.
    8. Tullio Gregori, 2009. "Currency crisis duration and interest defence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 256-267.
    9. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March.
    10. Guimarães, Bernardo, 2007. "Currency Crisis Triggers: Sunspots or Thresholds?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Antonio Doblas-Madrid, 2009. "Fiscal Trends and Self-Fulfilling Crises," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 187-204, February.
    12. Minguez-Afonso, Gara, 2006. "Imperfect common knowledge in first generation models of currency crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24509, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominal anchor; optimizing BOP crises; speculative attacks;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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