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Imperfect common knowledge in first generation models of currency crises

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  • Minguez-Afonso, Gara

Abstract

First generation models assume that the level of reserves of a Central Bank in a fixed exchange rate regime is common knowledge among consummers, and therefore the timing of the attack on the currency, in an economy with persistent deficit, can be correctly anticipated. In these models, the collapse of the peg leads to no discrete change in the exchange rate. We relax the assumption of perfect information and introduce uncertainty about the willingness of a Central Bank to defend the peg. In this new setting, there is a unique equilibrium at which the fixed exchange is abandoned. In our model, the lack of common knowledge will lead to a discrete devaluation of the local currency once the peg finally collapses.

Suggested Citation

  • Minguez-Afonso, Gara, 2006. "Imperfect common knowledge in first generation models of currency crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24509, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:24509
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/24509/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March.
    2. Pastine, Ivan, 2002. "Speculation and the decision to abandon a fixed exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 197-229, June.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    4. André Fourçans & Raphaël Franck, 2003. "Currency Crises," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3124, February.
    5. Martin J. Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein, 1994. "A Course in Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650401, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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