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Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique

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  • Brana, Sophie

    (LARE-efi, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV)

  • Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila

    (CATT-EREMI, Université de Pau-Bayonne)

Abstract

This paper is a critical survey of the currency crisis literature. Theoretical and empirical analysis generally fail to anticipate currency crisis because of the complex nature of such crisis and because of the prevailing role of speculators. The main weakness of this research is its incapacity to integrate properly the market maker's behaviours, although determining the crisis launching. Ce travail consiste en une analyse critique de la littérature existante sur les indicateurs avancés des crises de change. Elle rend compte de l’impossibilité de prévoir les crises de change compte tenu du caractère complexe des crises spéculatives et du comportement des opérateurs. La principale limite des modèles actuels est leur incapacité à réellement appréhender le comportement des opérateurs de marché, seul susceptible pourtant de déclencher la crise.

Suggested Citation

  • Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, décembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:77:y:2001:i:4:p:569-592
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