IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2866.html

Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Edwards
  • Peter Montiel

Abstract

This paper develops our analytical model to explore the relationship between the dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment and the timing of the implementation of an adjustment program featuring an official devaluation. The effects of postponing adjustment depend on the source of the original shock, In the case of fiscal expansion, postponement implies a larger eventual official devaluation and greater deviations of macroeconomic variables from their steady-state values. For adverse terms of trade shocks, postponement does not affect the size of the eventual official devaluation, but does magnify the amount of post-devaluation overshooting by key macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards & Peter Montiel, 1989. "Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2866
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2866.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
    2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1986. "Special Exchange Rates for Capital Account Transactions," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 1(1), pages 3-33, September.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    4. Khan, Mohsin S & Lizondo, J Saul, 1987. "Devaluation, Fiscal Deficits, and the Real Exchange Rate," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 1(2), pages 357-374, January.
    5. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua, 1985. "Adjustment to monetary policy and devaluation under two-tier and fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 153-169.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eijffinger Sylvester C. W. & Goderis Benedikt, 2007. "Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 309-343, August.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    3. Prof.Dr. Cevat GERNI & Doc.Dr. O. Selcuk EMSEN & Dr. M. Kemal DEGER, 2005. "Erken Uyari Sistemlerý Yoluyla Turkiye’Deki Ekonomik Krizlerin Analizi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 2(1), pages 39-62, November.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: The Role of Foreign Advisors," NBER Working Papers 11429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kalyvitis, Sarantis C., 1997. "Evaluating the real effects of devaluation expectations in Greece under alternative policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 215-236, April.
    6. Dongchul Cho, 2012. "Responses of the Korean Economy to the Global Economic Crisis: Another Currency Crisis?," Chapters, in: Maurice Obstfeld & Dongchul Cho & Andrew Mason (ed.), Global Economic Crisis, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Dapontas Dimitrios, 2014. "The Argentinian Peso Crisis (2014)," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 61(2), pages 149-159, December.
    8. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
    9. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas, 2007. "Dual foreign currency markets and the role of expectations: Evidence from the Pacific Basin countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 238-259, June.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    11. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Goderis, B.V.G., 2005. "Currency Crisis, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities," Other publications TiSEM 5fd07236-d47e-4233-bd0c-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Economic Development and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid: A Historical Perspective," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 277-316, August.
    13. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1995. "Progress Report on Argentina," NBER Chapters, in: Reform, Recovery, and Growth: Latin America and the Middle East, pages 223-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    15. Ekanem, Nkanta Frank, 2002. "Differential impact of exchange rate on US trade with two major and two minor trading partners in Africa," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 557-571.
    16. Ahec Šonje, Amina, 1999. "Leading Indicators of Currency and Banking Crises: Croatia and the World," MPRA Paper 82574, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ogbulu, Onyemachi Maxwell & Torbira, Lezaasi Lenee, 2017. "Transmission Effect of the Interaction between Parallel and Official Foreign Exchange Markets in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(6), pages 76-90, 06-2017.
    18. Panayiotis Diamantis & Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "The Monetary Approach in the Presence of I(2) Components: A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Black Market for Foreign Currency in Latin America," Working Papers 0108, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    19. Graham Bird, 2004. "External Financing and Balance of Payments Adjustment in Developing Countries: Getting a Better Policy Mix," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: International Finance and the Developing Economies, chapter 2, pages 14-33, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. repec:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i::p:309-343 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Sophie Brana & Dalila Chenaf-Nicet, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592.
    22. Bodea, Cristina, 2010. "The political economy of fixed exchange rate regimes: The experience of post-communist countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 248-264, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eijffinger Sylvester C. W. & Goderis Benedikt, 2007. "Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 309-343, August.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    4. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    5. Inci Gumus, 2015. "Fiscal Uncertainty and Currency Crises," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 957-970, November.
    6. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    7. Dorsainvil, Kathleen, 2001. "The parallel market as a policy instrument in collapsing exchange rate regimes," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 27-43.
    8. Inez Sílvia Batista Castro & José Carlos de Lacerda Leite, 2003. "Estimando Probabilidades de Ocorrência de Crises Cambiais no Brasil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] c05, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Sophie Brana & Dalila Chenaf-Nicet, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592.
    10. Vajanne, Laura, . "The Exchange Rate Under Target Zones," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 16, June.
    11. Feltenstein, Andrew & Morris, Stephen, 1988. "Fiscal stabilization and exchange rate instability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 74, The World Bank.
    12. Tassos G. Anastasatos & Ian R. Davidson, 2006. "How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study Using Multiple-Response Models," Working Papers 52, Bank of Greece.
    13. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2007. "Currency Crisis Triggers: Sunspots or Thresholds?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    15. Choueiri, Nada, 2002. "A model of contagious currency crises with application to Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 435-457, June.
    16. Otker, Inci & Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla, 1997. "Speculative attacks and macroeconomic fundamentals: evidence from some European currencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 847-860, April.
    17. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2008. "Vulnerability of currency pegs: evidence from Brazil," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4909, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Safdar Ullah Khan & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2008. "An Analysis of Pakistan's Vulnerability to Crisis," SBP Working Paper Series 21, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    19. Jesper Rangvid, 1997. "Deviations from long-run equilibria and probabilities of devaluations: An empirical analysis of Danish realignments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 497-522, September.
    20. Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez, 1999. "A regime - switching approach to studying speculative attacks : focus on European Monetary System crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2132, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.