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Currency crises, monetary policy and corporate balance sheet vulnerabilities

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  • Eijffinger, S.C.W.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Goderis, B.V.G.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

This paper studies how the exposure of a country's corporate sector to interest rate and exchange rate changes affects the probability of a currency crisis.To analyze this question, we present a model that defines currency crisis as situations in which the costs of maintaining a fixed exchange rate exceed the costs of abandonment.The results show that a higher exposure to interest rate changes increaes the probability of crisis through an increased need for output loss compensation and an increased efficacy of monetary policy in stimulating output.A higher exposure to exchange rate changes also increases the need for output loss compensation.However, it lowers the efficacy of monetary policy in stimulating output through the adverse balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciation.As a result, its effects on the probability of crisis is ambiguous.
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Suggested Citation

  • Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Goderis, B.V.G., 2007. "Currency crises, monetary policy and corporate balance sheet vulnerabilities," Other publications TiSEM efb2b284-5150-4ad4-aa63-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:efb2b284-5150-4ad4-aa63-c91aabd806b7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    2. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004, Fall.
    3. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
    4. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
    5. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    6. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Haan, Jakob de, 2000. "European Monetary and Fiscal Policy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198776161.
    7. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudi, 1999. "After Asia: New Directions for the International Financial System," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 289-299, May.
    9. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis," Staff Report 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477, Fall.
    11. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
    12. Corsetti, G. & Cavallari, L., 1996. "Policy Making and Speculative Attacks in Models of Exchange Rate Crises: A Synthesis," Papers 752, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Benedikt Goderis, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Currency Crises: the Role of Debt, Institutions, and Financial Openness," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 559-575, August.
    2. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Hans J. Blommestein & Javier Santiso, 2007. "New Strategies for Emerging Domestic Sovereign Bond Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 260, OECD Publishing.
    4. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2012. "Currency crises and monetary policy: A study on advanced and emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 948-974.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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