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Fiscal stabilization and exchange rate instability

  • Feltenstein, Andrew
  • Morris, Stephen

The aim of this paper is to examine the implications for certain key macroeconomic variables in relation to reductions in public spending. In particular, the paper looks at; the rate of inflation, the interest rate, and the rate of growth of real GNP. The paper develops an intertemporal general equilibrium model that is used to analyze reductions in government spending and the implications for the exchange rate and the balance of payments of these reductions. Section II gives a brief review of background literature and provides an intuitive explanation of our model. Section III formally derives the analytics of the model, while Section IV sketches a proof of the existence of an intertemporal equilibrium. Section V gives some policy simulations using Mexican data, and finally, Section VI concludes the paper.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 74.

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Date of creation: 31 Aug 1988
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:74
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  1. von Furstenberg, George M & Malkiel, Burton G, 1977. "The Government and Capital Formation: A Survey of Recent Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 835-78, September.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1979. "Fiscal policy, welfare, and employment with perfect foresight," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 149-166.
  3. Barro, Robert J., 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Scholarly Articles 3451294, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Stephen W. Salant & Dale W. Henderson, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1983. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 1103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Anticipations, Recessions and Policy: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Model," NBER Working Papers 0971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Marchand, M. & Mintz, J. & Pestieau, P., 1984. "Shadow pricing of labour and capital in an economy with unemployed labour," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 239-252, July.
  8. Grossman, Herschel I & Lucas, Robert F, 1974. "The Macro-Economic Effects of Productive Public Expenditures," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 42(2), pages 162-70, June.
  9. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August.
  10. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  11. Heller, Peter S, 1975. "A Model of Public Fiscal Behavior in Developing Countries: Aid, Investment, and Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 429-45, June.
  12. Groenewold, Nicolaas, 1980. "Fiscal policy with direct effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 219-224.
  13. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  14. V. Sundararajan & Subhash Thakur, 1980. "Public Investment, Crowding out, and Growth: A Dynamic Model Applied to India and Korea (Investissement public, "effet de refoulement" et croissance: un modèle dynamique appliqué à l'Inde ," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(4), pages 814-855, December.
  15. Connolly, Michael B & Taylor, Dean, 1984. "The Exact Timing of the Collapse of an Exchange Rate Regime and Its Impact on the Relative Price of Traded Goods," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 194-207, May.
  16. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  17. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521070935 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Mario I. Blejer & Mohsin S. Khan, 1984. "Government Policy and Private Investment in Developing Countries (Politique des pouvoirs publics et investissement privé dans les pays en développement) (Política estatal e inversión privada en lo," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 31(2), pages 379-403, June.
  19. Brennan, Geoffrey & Pincus, Jonathan J, 1983. "Government Expenditure Growth and Resource Allocation: The Nebulous Connection," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 351-65, November.
  20. David, Paul A & Scadding, John L, 1974. "Private Savings: Ultrarationality, Aggregation, and "Denison's Law."," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 225-49, Part I, M.
  21. Johansson, Per-Olov, 1982. "Cost-benefit rules in general disequilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 121-137, June.
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