IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/74.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal stabilization and exchange rate instability

Author

Listed:
  • Feltenstein, Andrew
  • Morris, Stephen

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the implications for certain key macroeconomic variables in relation to reductions in public spending. In particular, the paper looks at; the rate of inflation, the interest rate, and the rate of growth of real GNP. The paper develops an intertemporal general equilibrium model that is used to analyze reductions in government spending and the implications for the exchange rate and the balance of payments of these reductions. Section II gives a brief review of background literature and provides an intuitive explanation of our model. Section III formally derives the analytics of the model, while Section IV sketches a proof of the existence of an intertemporal equilibrium. Section V gives some policy simulations using Mexican data, and finally, Section VI concludes the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Feltenstein, Andrew & Morris, Stephen, 1988. "Fiscal stabilization and exchange rate instability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 74, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:74
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1988/08/01/000009265_3960927025830/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dale W. Henderson & Stephen W. Salant, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Marchand, M. & Mintz, J. & Pestieau, P., 1984. "Shadow pricing of labour and capital in an economy with unemployed labour," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 239-252, July.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
    4. Groenewold, Nicolaas, 1980. "Fiscal policy with direct effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 219-224.
    5. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-648, August.
    6. Grossman, Herschel I & Lucas, Robert F, 1974. "The Macro-Economic Effects of Productive Public Expenditures," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 42(2), pages 162-170, June.
    7. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1984. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 208-217, May.
    9. Groenewold, Nicolaas, 1982. "Fiscal Policy in a Perfect-Foresight Model with "Useful" Government Expenditure," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(38), pages 49-60, June.
    10. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    11. von Furstenberg, George M & Malkiel, Burton G, 1977. "The Government and Capital Formation: A Survey of Recent Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 835-878, September.
    12. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    13. V. Sundararajan & Subhash Thakur, 1980. "Public Investment, Crowding out, and Growth: A Dynamic Model Applied to India and Korea (Investissement public, "effet de refoulement" et croissance: un modèle dynamique appliqué à l'Inde ," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(4), pages 814-855, December.
    14. Johansson, Per-Olov, 1982. "Cost-benefit rules in general disequilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 121-137, June.
    15. Heller, Peter S, 1975. "A Model of Public Fiscal Behavior in Developing Countries: Aid, Investment, and Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 429-445, June.
    16. David, Paul A & Scadding, John L, 1974. "Private Savings: Ultrarationality, Aggregation, and "Denison's Law."," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 225-249, Part I, M.
    17. Brennan, Geoffrey & Pincus, Jonathan J, 1983. "Government Expenditure Growth and Resource Allocation: The Nebulous Connection," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 351-365, November.
    18. Mario I. Blejer & Mohsin S. Khan, 1984. "Government Policy and Private Investment in Developing Countries (Politique des pouvoirs publics et investissement privé dans les pays en développement) (Política estatal e inversión privada en lo," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 31(2), pages 379-403, June.
    19. Connolly, Michael B & Taylor, Dean, 1984. "The Exact Timing of the Collapse of an Exchange Rate Regime and Its Impact on the Relative Price of Traded Goods," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 194-207, May.
    20. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Anticipations, Recessions and Policy: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Model," NBER Working Papers 0971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1979. "Fiscal policy, welfare, and employment with perfect foresight," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 149-166.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feltenstein, Andrew & Shah, Anwar, 1995. "General equilibrium effects of investment incentives in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 253-269, April.
    2. Benjamin, Nancy, 1996. "Adjustment and income distribution in an agricultural economy: A general equilibrium analysis of Cameroon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1003-1013, June.
    3. Feltenstein, Andrew & Shah, Anwar, 1991. "Tax policy options to promote private capital formation in Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 698, The World Bank.
    4. Buiter, Willem H., 1988. "Can Public Spending Cuts be Inflationary?," CEPR Discussion Papers 225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Shah, Anwar, 1988. "Public infrastructure and private sector profitability and productivity in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 100, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Speculative Attack and the External Constraint in a Maximizing Model of the Balance of Payments," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Joseph Aschheim & Costas Christou & P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 1996. "A random coefficient model of speculative attacks: The case of the Mexican peso," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 553-571, March.
    4. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    6. James B. Bullard, 1991. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: a reinterpretation," Working Papers 1991-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    8. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Kramer, Charles, 1996. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: Another linear example," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 223-234, November.
    9. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Jian Xu, 2002. "Speculative Attacks and the Dynamics of Exchange Rates," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(2), pages 219-248, November.
    10. Mr. Robert P Flood & Juan Yepez & Ms. Nancy P. Marion, 2010. "A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 2010/227, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    13. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 2009. "Speculative attacks: A laboratory study in continuous time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1064-1082, October.
    15. Willem H. Buiter, 1986. "A "Gold Standard" Isn't Viable Unless Supported by Sufficiently FlexibleMonetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 1903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Willem H. Buiter, 1986. "Fiscal Prerequisites for a Viable Managed Exchange Rate Regime: A Non-technical Eclectic Introduction," NBER Working Papers 2041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jeanne, Olivier, 1999. "Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March.
    19. Goldberg, Linda S., 1991. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: shocks and biases," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 252-263, June.
    20. Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 309-343, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.