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Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Shocks and Biases

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  • Linda S. Goldberg

Abstract

Patterns in domestic credit creation stemming from inconsistent fiscal policies have received widespread attention for aggravating speculative attacks on central bank foreign exchange reserves and contributing to the collapse of exchange rate regimes. This paper acknowledges the importance of monetary and fiscal discipline, but also emphasizes the importance of other random shocks to the domestic money market, most notably shocks from external credit supplies and relative prices. Policies of the domestic fiscal authorities are only partial catalysts for speculative attacks on a currency. Expansion of domestic credit stemming from the monetization of fiscal imbalances may be dominated by involuntary domestic credit expansions necessitated by surprise shortages in supplies of external capital. Further, the unexpected availability of external capital translates into a lower net critical reserve floor, making the depletion of central bank reserves by a speculative attack more difficult to accomplish. Also of considerable importance are relative price shocks which directly influence the probability of collapse by randomizing the demand for nominal money balances. Empirical studies of exchange rate crises that neglect these considerations will produce biased estimates of both expected collapse probabilities and anticipated post-collapse exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Linda S. Goldberg, 1988. "Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Shocks and Biases," NBER Working Papers 2702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2702 Note: ITI IFM
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    1. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
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    3. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1983. "Trying to Stabilize: Some Theoretical Reflections Based on the Case of Argentina," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, pages 199-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Flood, Robert P. & Hodrick, Robert J., 1986. "Real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 215-232, November.
    6. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Prati & Massimo Sbracia, 2002. "Currency crises and uncertainty about fundamentals," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Inci Ötker & Ceyla Pazarbaşioĝlu, 1996. "Speculative attacks and currency crises: The Mexican experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 535-552, March.
    3. Osakwe, Patrick N. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2002. "Real effects of collapsing exchange rate regimes: an application to Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 299-325, August.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Goldberg, Linda S., 1994. "Predicting exchange rate crises : Mexico revisited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 413-430.
    6. Jeanne, Olivier, 1999. "Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010. "Uncertainty and currency crises: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 668-681, September.
    8. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    9. William R. Melick, 1996. "Estimation of speculative attack models: Mexico yet again," BIS Working Papers 36, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Otker, Inci & Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla, 1997. "Speculative attacks and macroeconomic fundamentals: evidence from some European currencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 847-860, April.

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