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Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico

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Abstract

This paper examines the impact of a collapsing exchange rate regime on output in an open economy in which shocks to capital flows and exports predominate. A sticky-price rational expec-tations model is used to compare the variability of output under the collapsing regime to that under alternative fixed and flexible regimes. Output is found to be most stable under a flexible rate. A counterfactual exercise is performed for Mexico, using the parallel market exchange rate as a proxy for the shadow flexible rate. The main finding is that had Mexico been on a flexible rate for the past two decades, instead of a series of collapsing regimes, the variance of real output would have been reduced by half.

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  • Patrick N. Osakwe & Lawrence L. Schembri, 1999. "Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico," Carleton Economic Papers 99-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2002.
    • Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:99-07
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    Cited by:

    1. Bussière, Matthieu & Saxena, Sweta C. & Tovar, Camilo E., 2012. "Chronicle of currency collapses: Re examining the effects on output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 680-708.
    2. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2005. "Choice of Monetary and Exchange Regimes in ECOWAS : An Optimum Currency Area Analysis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22570, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Ibrahim Chowdhury, 2004. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: empirical evidence from six emerging market countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 697-705.
    4. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Purchasing Power Parity For Developing And Developed Countries. What Can We Learn From Non‐Stationary Panel Data Models?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 752-773, September.
    5. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    6. Agbeyegbe, Terence D. & Osakwe, Patrick N., 2005. "Real exchange rate volatility and the choice of regimes in emerging markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1005-1022, January.
    7. Kevin X.D. Huang & Thaneepanichskul Suchada, 2003. "Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Cases of Mexico and Thailand in the Aftermaths of their Recent Currency Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(2), pages 375-400, November.
    8. Murray, John & Schembri, Lawrence & St-Amant, Pierre, 2003. "Revisiting the case for flexible exchange rates in North America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 207-240, August.
    9. Ella Oyono, Dieudonné, 2006. "Effets réels des régimes de change dans les pays en développement," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 82(3), pages 319-340, septembre.
    10. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    11. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2005. "Choice of Monetary and Exchange Regimes in ECOWAS: An Optimum Currency Area Analysis," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0510, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
    12. Giugale, Marcelo & Korobow, Adam, 2000. "Shock persistence and the choice of foreign exchange regime - an empirical note from Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2371, The World Bank.
    13. Lafrance, Robert & St-Amant, Pierre, 2000. "Les zones monétaires optimales," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 577-612, décembre.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    collapsing exchange rate regimes; output variability; captital flows; exports; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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