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Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico

This paper examines the impact of a collapsing exchange rate regime on output in an open economy in which shocks to capital flows and exports predominate. A sticky-price rational expec-tations model is used to compare the variability of output under the collapsing regime to that under alternative fixed and flexible regimes. Output is found to be most stable under a flexible rate. A counterfactual exercise is performed for Mexico, using the parallel market exchange rate as a proxy for the shadow flexible rate. The main finding is that had Mexico been on a flexible rate for the past two decades, instead of a series of collapsing regimes, the variance of real output would have been reduced by half.

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Paper provided by Carleton University, Department of Economics in its series Carleton Economic Papers with number 99-07.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Apr 1999
Date of revision: Aug 2002
Publication status: Published: – revised version in Journal of International Economics, Vol. 57, No. 2 (August 2002), pp. 299–325
Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:99-07
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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  2. Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
  3. A. James Meigs, 1997. "Mexican Monetary Lessons," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 35-72, Spring/Su.
  4. Goldberg, Linda S., 1991. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: shocks and biases," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 252-263, June.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
  6. Inci Ötker & Ceyla PazarbaÅŸioÄlu, 1996. "Speculative attacks and currency crises: The Mexican experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 535-552, March.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Flood, Robert P. & Hodrick, Robert J., 1986. "Real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 215-232, November.
  9. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 3919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "The Mexican Peso Crisis? How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?," NBER Working Papers 6334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Patrick Osakwe & Lawrence Schembri, 1998. "Currency crises and fixed exchange rates in the 1990s: A review," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1998(Autumn), pages 23-38.
  13. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  14. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  15. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
  16. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  17. Laidler, David, 1999. "The Exchange Rate Regime and Canada's Monetary Order," Working Papers 99-7, Bank of Canada.
  18. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
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