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Effets réels des régimes de change dans les pays en développement

  • Ella Oyono, Dieudonné

    (CIRPÉE)

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    Does the choice of exchange rate regime affect macroeconomic fluctuations? This paper answers the question by an econometric analysis. The results obtained indicate that exchange rate regime has real effects; floating exchange rate regimes are associated with smaller output volatility. These results explain why countries in the last decade have abandoned pegged exchange rates and constitute a step towards the identification of criteria for the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime. Lorsqu’un pays passe d’un régime de change à un autre, ce changement affecte-t-il les variables macroéconomiques telle que la production ? Ce texte répond à cette question en régressant la volatilité de la production sur les types de régime et un certain nombre de variables de contrôle. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que le régime de change a des effets réels; de plus, de faibles fluctuations de la production sont associées aux régimes de change « non fixes ». Il apparaît donc que l’abandon du régime fixe observé au cours de la dernière décennie se justifie par un objectif de stabilité de la production. Ceci constitue un pas vers l’identification des critères d’un régime de change optimal.

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    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 82 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (septembre)
    Pages: 319-340

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:82:y:2006:i:3:p:319-340
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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Osakwe, Patrick N. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2002. "Real effects of collapsing exchange rate regimes: an application to Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 299-325, August.
    4. Bleaney, Michael & Fielding, David, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes, inflation and output volatility in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 233-245, June.
    5. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November.
    7. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    8. Bailliu, Jeannine & Lafrance, Robert & Perrault, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 381-414, Winter.
    9. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    10. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
    11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    12. Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "Panel data and unobservable individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May.
    13. Terence C. Mills & Geoffrey E. Wood, 1993. "Does the exchange rate regime affect the economy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-20.
    14. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
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