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Effets réels des régimes de change dans les pays en développement

  • Ella Oyono, Dieudonné

    (CIRPÉE)

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    Does the choice of exchange rate regime affect macroeconomic fluctuations? This paper answers the question by an econometric analysis. The results obtained indicate that exchange rate regime has real effects; floating exchange rate regimes are associated with smaller output volatility. These results explain why countries in the last decade have abandoned pegged exchange rates and constitute a step towards the identification of criteria for the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime. Lorsqu’un pays passe d’un régime de change à un autre, ce changement affecte-t-il les variables macroéconomiques telle que la production ? Ce texte répond à cette question en régressant la volatilité de la production sur les types de régime et un certain nombre de variables de contrôle. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que le régime de change a des effets réels; de plus, de faibles fluctuations de la production sont associées aux régimes de change « non fixes ». Il apparaît donc que l’abandon du régime fixe observé au cours de la dernière décennie se justifie par un objectif de stabilité de la production. Ceci constitue un pas vers l’identification des critères d’un régime de change optimal.

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    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 82 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (septembre)
    Pages: 319-340

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:82:y:2006:i:3:p:319-340
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    1. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jonathan David Ostry & Anne Marie Gulde & Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 95/121, International Monetary Fund.
    3. J. A. Hausman & W. E. Taylor, 1980. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Working papers 255, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    4. Osakwe, Patrick N. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2002. "Real effects of collapsing exchange rate regimes: an application to Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 299-325, August.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bailliu, Jeannine & Lafrance, Robert & Perrault, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 381-414, Winter.
    7. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6467, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
    9. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    10. Terence C. Mills & Geoffrey E. Wood, 1993. "Does the exchange rate regime affect the economy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-20.
    11. Bleaney, Michael & Fielding, David, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes, inflation and output volatility in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 233-245, June.
    12. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    13. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    14. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
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