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What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation

Author

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  • Michael Bleaney
  • Manuela Francisco

Abstract

Real effective exchange rate volatility is examined for 90 countries using monthly data from January 1990 to June 2006. Volatility decreases with openness to international trade and per capita GDP, and increases with inflation, particularly under a horizontal peg or band, and with terms-of-trade volatility. The choice of exchange rate regime matters. After controlling for these effects, a free float adds at least 45 % to the standard deviation of the real effective exchange rate, relative to a conventional peg, but most other regimes make little difference. The results are robust to alternative volatility measures and to sample selection bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2008. "What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 08/09, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notecp:08/09
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    File URL: https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/documents/discussion-papers/08-09.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Stan Du Plessis & Monique Brigitte Reid, 2015. "The Exchange Rate Dimension of Inflation Targeting: Target Levels and Currency Volatility," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(2), pages 174-179, June.
    2. Nicas Yabu & Deogratius Kimolo, 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Implications on Macroeconomic Variables in East African Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(3), pages 145-171, May.
    3. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2021. "Reserve Volatility and the Identification of Exchange Rate Regimes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 701-723, September.
    4. Victor Shevchuk & Roman Kopych, 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Misalignment, and Risk of Recession in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Yahui Yang & Zhe Peng, 2024. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from China," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 121-158, February.
    6. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2010. "What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 731-750, November.
    7. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2012. "Currency Networks, Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility and the Role of the US Dollar," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 785-803, November.
    8. Tsen, Wong Hock, 2011. "The real exchange rate determination: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 800-811, October.
    9. Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C. N., 2017. "Central bank transparency and the volatility of exchange rates," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C.N., 2018. "Central bank transparency and the volatility of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 23-49.
    11. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 655-675, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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