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Currency Networks, Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility and the Role of the US Dollar

  • Michael Bleaney
  • Mo Tian
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We investigate monthly bilateral exchange rate volatility for a large sample of currency pairs over the period 1999-2006. Pegs (particularly to the US dollar) and managed floats tend to have lower volatility than independent floats. A deeper investigation shows that the peg effect operates almost entirely through currency networks (i.e. where two currencies are pegged to the same anchor currency), and the lower volatility of US dollar pegs reflects the size of the US dollar network. Managed floats show clear evidence of tracking the US dollar, further increasing the effective size of the US dollar network. Inflation undermines the currency-stabilizing effect of peg networks. Currencies in smaller peg networks have higher unweighted but not trade-weighted exchange rate volatility, which is consistent with anchors being chosen to minimize trade-weighted volatility. The size of the effective US dollar network revealed here is a plausible explanation of the rarity of basket pegs. Volatility also reflects a range of structural factors such as country size, level of development, population density, inflation differentials and business cycle asymmetry.

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File URL: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/documents/discussion-papers/11-06.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Nottingham, School of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 11/06.

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Handle: RePEc:not:notecp:11/06
Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD
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Web page: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/

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  1. Nienke Oomes & Christopher M. Meissner, 2008. "Why Do Countries Peg the Way they Peg? the Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice," IMF Working Papers 08/132, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, . "What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 08/09, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
  3. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February.
  4. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2007. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: a statistical analysis of alternative methods," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(3), pages 1-16.
  5. Hau, Harald, 2000. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2356, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
  7. Devereux, M.B. & Lane, P.R., 2002. "Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility," CEG Working Papers 20025, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  8. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Remoteness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility," IMF Working Papers 05/01, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1982, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Michael Bleaney, 2008. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: In Search of an Explanation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 135-146, April.
  13. Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe C├ęspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 236, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Tavlas, George & Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan C., 2008. "The classification and performance of alternative exchange-rate systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 941-963, August.
  15. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2012. "Currency Networks, Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility and the Role of the US Dollar," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 785-803, November.
  16. Claudio Bravo-Ortega AND Julian di Giovanni, 2004. "Trade Costs and Real Exchange Rate Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 227, Econometric Society.
  17. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  18. Edwards, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2005. "Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2079-2105, November.
  19. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May.
  20. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Azim M. Sadikov & Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 235, International Monetary Fund.
  22. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:3:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2005. "Exchange rate regimes and inflation: only hard pegs make a difference," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1453-1471, November.
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