IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Exchange Rate Regime Choice with Multiple Key Currencies

  • Thomas Plümper and Eric Neumayer

Recent scholarship on exchange rate regime choice seeks to explain why some countries fix their exchange rate to an anchor currency, but it neglects the question to which currency countries peg. This article posits that an understanding of the choice of anchor currency also improves political economists’ understanding of the decision for an exchange rate peg itself. Drawing on the ‘fear of floating literature’, we argue that the choice of anchor currency is mainly determined by the degree of dependence of the potentially pegging country on imports from the country or currency union issuing the key currency as well as the degree of dependence on imports from the currency area, that is, from other countries which have already pegged to that key currency. This is because an exchange rate depreciation against the main trading partners’ currency increases domestic inflationary pressures due to exchange-rate pass-through. In addition, our theory claims that central bank independence and de facto fixed exchange rates are complements (rather than substitutes) since independent central banks care more than governments about imported inflation. Analyzing a pooled cross-section of 106 countries over the period 1974 to 2005, we find ample evidence in support of our theoretical predictions.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/documents/discussion/pdfs/iiisdp264.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp264.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 04 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp264
Note: Length:
Contact details of provider: Postal:
01

Phone: 00 353 1 896 3888
Fax: 00 353 1 896 3939
Web page: http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. David H. Bearce & Mark Hallerberg, 2011. "Democracy And De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 172-194, 07.
  3. Broz, J. Lawrence, 2002. "Political System Transparency and Monetary Commitment Regimes," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 861-887, September.
  4. Devereux, Michael B & Lane, Philip R., 2002. "Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 3518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Barry Eichengreen and Marc Flandreau., 1994. "The Geography of the Gold Standard," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-042, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Does High Inflation Cause Central Bankers to Lose Their Job? Evidence Based on a New Data Set," KOF Working papers 07-167, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  7. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, . "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," Working Papers 121, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  8. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
  9. Philip R. Lane & Michael B. Devereux,Juanyi Xu, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp036, IIIS.
  10. Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden & Piero Ghezzi, 2000. "Politics and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Approach to Latin America," Research Department Publications 3119, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  11. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  12. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Economics Working Papers 90-151, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," NBER Working Papers 12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
  15. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
  16. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," Research Department Publications 4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  17. Jeffry Frieden & David Leblang & Neven Valev, 2010. "The political economy of exchange rate regimes in transition economies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, March.
  18. Thomas D. Willett, 2001. "The OCA Approach to Exchange Rate Regimes: A Perspective on Recent Developments," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-04, Claremont Colleges.
  19. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
  20. Barro, Robert & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Currency Unions," Scholarly Articles 4551795, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  21. Clark, William Roberts, 2002. "Partisan and Electoral Motivations and the Choice of Monetary Institutions Under Fully Mobile Capital," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 725-749, September.
  22. Walter Isard, 1954. "Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 305-320.
  23. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Nienke Oomes & Christopher M. Meissner, 2008. "Why Do Countries Peg the Way They Peg? The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice," IMF Working Papers 08/132, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
    [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
    ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Silvana Tenreyro & Robert J. Barro, 2002. "Economic effects of currency unions," Working Papers 02-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  27. Robert A. Mundell, 1962. "The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 70-79, March.
  28. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
  29. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
  30. Bernhard, William & Broz, J. Lawrence & Clark, William Roberts, 2002. "The Political Economy of Monetary Institutions," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 693-723, September.
  31. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 1999. "Political Economics and Public Finance," NBER Working Papers 7097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Hallerberg, Mark, 2002. "Veto Players and the Choice of Monetary Institutions," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 775-802, September.
  34. Frieden, Jeffry A., 1991. "Invested interests: the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 425-451, September.
  35. Alberto Alesina & Alexander Wagner, 2003. "Choosing (And Reneging On) Exchange Rate Regimes," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2008, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  36. Helge Berger & Henrik Jensen & Guttorm Schjelderup, 2001. "To Peg or Not To Peg? A Simple Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice In Small Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 468, CESifo Group Munich.
  37. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1988. "The advantage of tying one's hands : EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1055-1075, June.
  38. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Exchange rate volatility and intervention: implications of the theory of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-209, August.
  39. Andres Velasco & Roberto Chang, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Policy for Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 71-75, May.
  40. Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 1999. "Democratic Institutions and Exchange-rate Commitments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(01), pages 71-97, December.
  41. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2002. "Expanded Trade and GDP Data," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(5), pages 712-724, October.
  42. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Neumayer, Eric & Plümper, Thomas, 2010. "Spatial Effects in Dyadic Data," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(01), pages 145-166, January.
  44. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
  45. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 301-352.
  46. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1, September.
  47. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2005. "Exchange rate regimes and inflation: only hard pegs make a difference," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1453-1471, November.
  48. Frieden, Jeffry A., 2002. "Real Sources of European Currency Policy: Sectoral Interests and European Monetary Integration," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 831-860, September.
  49. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  50. André Sapir & Richard Baldwin & Daniel Cohen & Anthony Venables, 1999. "Market integration, regionalism and the global economy," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8074, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp264. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Colette Keleher)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.