IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdp1/201112.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Currency blocs in the 21st century

Author

Listed:
  • Fischer, Christoph

Abstract

Based on a classification of countries and territories according to their regime and anchor currency choice, the study considers the two major currency blocs of the present world. A nested logit regression suggests that long-term structural economic variables determine a given country's currency bloc affiliation. The dollar bloc differs from the euro bloc in that there exists a group of countries that peg temporarily to the US dollar without having close economic affinities with the bloc. The estimated parameters are consistent with an additive random utility model interpretation. A currency bloc equilibrium in the spirit of Alesina and Barro (2002) is derived empirically.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Christoph, 2011. "Currency blocs in the 21st century," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/47888/1/661856801.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Meissner, Christopher M. & Oomes, Nienke, 2009. "Why do countries peg the way they peg? The determinants of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 522-547, April.
    3. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar06-2.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    6. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
    7. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2007. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 283-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2002. "Currency Unions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 409-436.
    9. Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 1998. "The emergence of the euro as an international currency," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 306-343.
    10. K. Yudaeva., 2010. "On the Exchange Rate Policy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
    11. Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Economic Effects Of Currency Unions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23, January.
    12. Adam S. Posen, 2008. "Why the Euro will Not Rival the Dollar," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 75-100, May.
    13. Ms. Hélène Poirson, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 2001/046, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 434-448.
    15. Rosmy Jean Louis & Mohamed Osman & Faruk Balli, 2010. "Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1898-1922, December.
    16. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026251799x, December.
    17. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    18. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Adam Posen, . "The euro at ten- the next global currency?," Books, Bruegel, number 303.
    19. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2007. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1071-1094, November.
    20. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "The international role of the euro: a status report," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 317, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Dubas, Justin M. & Lee, Byung-Joo & Mark, Nelson C., 2010. "A multinomial logit approach to exchange rate policy classification with an application to growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1438-1462, November.
    22. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 2008. "Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 49-73, May.
    24. Eichengreen, Barry, 2012. "Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199642472.
    25. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Miss Grace Juhn, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/104, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 2008. "Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 49-73, May.
    27. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2008. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies," NBER Working Papers 14168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    29. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, August.
    30. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 183-206, April.
    31. M. S. Rafiq, 2011. "Sources of economic fluctuations in oil‐exporting economies: implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 70-91, January.
    32. Nikolaus Wolf & Albrecht O. Ritschl, 2011. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 291-312, May.
    33. Alberto Alesina & Alexander F. Wagner, 2006. "Choosing (and Reneging on) Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 770-799, June.
    34. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    35. Adam S. Posen & Jean-Pisani Ferry (ed.), 2009. "Euro at Ten: The Next Global Currency?, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4303.
    36. Aaron Brown, 2011. "Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System, by Barry Eichengreen," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 825-826.
    37. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May.
    38. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 301-352.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Christoph, 2016. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria: An empirical strategy based on estimates of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 214-238.
    2. Fischer, Christoph, 2015. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113197, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoph Fischer, 2011. "Currency blocs in the 21st century," Globalization Institute Working Papers 87, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fischer, Christoph, 2016. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria: An empirical strategy based on estimates of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 214-238.
    4. Fischer, Christoph, 2015. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113197, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    6. Jong-Wha Lee & Kwanho Shin, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Linkages," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 1-23.
    7. Alexis Cruz-Rodriguez, 2013. "Choosing and Assessing Exchange Rate Regimes: a Survey of the Literature," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 28(2), pages 37-61, October.
    8. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    9. Philipp Harms & Mathias Hoffmann, 2011. "Deciding to Peg the Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: The Role of Private-Sector Debt," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 825-846, November.
    10. Thomas Plümper and Eric Neumayer, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice with Multiple Key Currencies," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp264, IIIS.
    11. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Geoffrey Minne, 2014. "Mark my Words: Information and the Fear of Declaring one’s Exchange Rate Regime," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 107, pages 244-261, March.
    12. Ghosh, Amit, 2014. "A comparison of exchange rate regime choice in emerging markets with advanced and low income nations for 1999–2011," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 358-370.
    13. John Ryan, 2009. "China and the Global Roles of Currencies," Working Papers 2009.8, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    14. Meissner, Christopher M. & Oomes, Nienke, 2009. "Why do countries peg the way they peg? The determinants of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 522-547, April.
    15. Graham Bird & Alex Mandilaras & Helen Popper, 2012. "Explaining Shifts in Exchange Rate Regimes," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1312, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    16. Menna Bizuneh, 2022. "Are We Floating Yet? Duration of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 63-89, January.
    17. Méon, Pierre-Guillaume & Minne, Geoffrey, 2014. "Mark my words: Information and the fear of declaring an exchange rate regime," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 244-261.
    18. Dubas, Justin M. & Lee, Byung-Joo & Mark, Nelson C., 2010. "A multinomial logit approach to exchange rate policy classification with an application to growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1438-1462, November.
    19. Troeger, Vera, 2012. "Monetary Policy Flixibility in floating Exchange Rate Regimes: Currency Denomination and Import Shares," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 82, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    20. Bracke, Thierry & Bunda, Irina, 2011. "Exchange rate anchoring - Is there still a de facto US dollar standard?," Working Paper Series 1353, European Central Bank.
    21. Barry Eichengreen & Arnaud Mehl & Livia Chiţu & Thorsten Beck, 2019. "Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 315-363.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anchor Currency Choice; Nested Logit; Exchange Rate Regime Classification; Additive Random Utility Model; Currency Bloc Equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.