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Is the US dollar a suitable anchor for the newly proposed GCC currency?

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  • Jean Louis, Rosmy
  • Balli, Faruk
  • Osman, Mohammad

Abstract

Responses of inflation and non-oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US Dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short-run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non-oil output growth, and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non-oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a Dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries - not necessarily stable non-oil output growth. If the non-oil output response is made conscientiously - and there are concerns over the Dollar's ability to perform its role as a store of value - a basket peg with both the US Dollar and the Euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short-term interest rate.

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  • Jean Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk & Osman, Mohammad, 2009. "Is the US dollar a suitable anchor for the newly proposed GCC currency?," MPRA Paper 34003, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34003
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    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Christoph, 2016. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria: An empirical strategy based on estimates of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 214-238.
    2. Essahbi Essaadi, 2017. "The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2153-2171, October.
    3. Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli & Mohamed Osman, 2012. "On the choice of an anchor for the GCC currency: does the symmetry of shocks extend to both the oil and the non-oil sectors?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 83-110, March.
    4. Fischer, Christoph, 2011. "Currency blocs in the 21st century," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    6. Fischer, Christoph, 2015. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113197, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. M. Kabir Hassan & Ashraf Nakibullah & Abul Hassan, 2013. "Sterilisation and Monetary Control by the GCC Member Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(12), pages 1566-1587, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GCC Countries; US monetary policy shock; monetary union; currency peg; SVARs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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