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Transmission de la politique monétaire dans les Pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale : que savons-nous vraiment ?

Author

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  • Iuliana Matei
  • Jérôme Héricourt

Abstract

[fre] Cet article propose d’évaluer la capacité de la politique monétaire à influencer le produit et l’inflation dans les huit PECO ayant récemment adhéré à l’UE et les potentielles évolutions de ces mécanismes de transmission à la faveur des changements de régime monétaire intervenus dans beaucoup de ces pays. Nos résultats mettent en avant un rapprochement indéniable des mécanismes de transmission de la politique monétaire dans les PECO vers ceux des pays industrialisés, avec notamment une réaction de la production cohérente et significative pour la totalité des pays étudiés. En outre, si l’impact sur l’inflation apparaît encore peu décelable, l’analyse empirique souligne l’absence de réaction incohérente des prix (price puzzle) lorsque l’on considère des régimes de politique monétaire stabilisés et crédibles contre l’inflation (cf. Castelnuovo et Surico, 2006). [eng] This article assesses the impact of monetary policy on output and inflation for the eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) newly admitted to the EU. Unlike most previous research, we explicitly link the potential changes in these transmission mechanisms to the monetary-regime switches that occurred in most of the countries studied. Our results show an undeniable convergence of CEEC monetary-policy transmission mechanisms toward the standards of industrialized countries. The convergence is especially visible in the consistent, significant response of output in all the countries examined. While the impact on inflation is still hard to detect, empirical analysis highlights the fact that all price puzzles disappear in stable and credibly inflation-averse monetary-policy regimes (Castelnuovo and Surico, 2006).

Suggested Citation

  • Iuliana Matei & Jérôme Héricourt, 2007. "Transmission de la politique monétaire dans les Pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale : que savons-nous vraiment ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 221-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2007_num_180_4_7681
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2007.7681
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2007.7681
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    1. MEZUI-MBENG, Pamphile, 2010. "Tramsission de la politique monétaire: le cas des pays de la CEMAC [Monetary policy transmission: the case of the CEMAC]," MPRA Paper 26032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2011. "Financial integration and currency risk premium in CEECs: Evidence from the ICAPM," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 460-484.

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