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The Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in the CEECs : A Structural VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Cornel Oros

    (CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière [EA 2249] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)

  • Camélia Turcu

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper deals with the monetary policy transmission channels of six Central European countries: CEECs - Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia - over recent periods corresponding to stable monetary regimes. We will take into account three channels - the interest rate, the exchange rate and the domestic credit - whose relative importance will be accounted for using a structural VAR model. The results show that all the countries share a weak domestic credit channel while they are highly heterogeneous with regards to the relative effectiveness of the interest rate and exchange rate channels. Thus, Hungary and Poland's distinctive feature is the presence of a price puzzle effect combined with a high influence of the exchange rate which acts both as a mechanism of monetary policy transmission and as a supply and demand shock absorber. On the contrary, just like in the case of the Euro zone countries, it is the interest rate channel that has the major influence in the case of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and partially Romania. Therefore, this latter group appears to be more apt to join the EMU in the near future, which can be confirmed by the Slovenian case.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornel Oros & Camélia Turcu, 2009. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in the CEECs : A Structural VAR Approach," Post-Print hal-00954297, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00954297
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    Cited by:

    1. Margarit Monica-Ionelia, 2021. "The Characteristics Of Interest Rate Channel In Central And East Europe," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 324-332, February.
    2. Lan Nguyen, Thi Mai & Papyrakis, Elissaios & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2021. "Publication bias in the price effects of monetary policy: A meta-regression analysis for emerging and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 567-583.
    3. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    4. Valentina-Ioana Mera & Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi & Camélia Turcu, 2020. "Economic Sentiments and Money Demand Stability in the CEECs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 343-369, April.
    5. Dedu, Vasile & Stoica, Tiberiu, 2014. "The Impact of Monetaru Policy on the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 71-86, June.
    6. Thi Mai Lan Nguyen, 2020. "Output Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging and Developing Countries: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 68-85, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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