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Monetary Policy in Transition: Structural Econometric Modelling and Policy Simulations

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  • Wojciech Maliszewski

Abstract

In this paper I estimate a Bayesian structural VAR models for the Czech Republic and Poland, allowing for changes in parameters between the two monetary policy arrangements. The four-variables structural VAR methodology adopted in the study is successful in identifying monetary policy shocks and their effects for the Czech and Polish economies. The time-varying model is capable of detecting a change in the policy reaction function consistent with introduction of the floating exchange rate system and switching to short-term interest rate as the main policy instrument. The results indicate the dominant role of exchange rate in the monetary transmission mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojciech Maliszewski, 2002. "Monetary Policy in Transition: Structural Econometric Modelling and Policy Simulations," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0246, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of inflation and output fluctuations in Poland and Hungary: Implications for full membership in the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 16-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    2. Gottschalk, Jan & Moore, David, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Case of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, March.
    3. Marco Del Negro & Francesc Obiols-Homs, 2001. "Has monetary policy been so bad that it is better to get rid of it? The case of Mexico," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 404-439.
    4. Peter Christoffersen & Torsten Sløk & Robert Wescott, 2001. "Is inflation targeting feasible in Poland?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, March.
    5. Tomás J. T. Baliño & Juhi Dhawan & V. Sundararajan, 1994. "Payments System Reforms and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(3), pages 383-410, September.
    6. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    7. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    8. Horvath, Julius & Jonas, Jiri, 1998. "Exchange rate regimes in the transition economies: Case study of the Czech Republic: 1990-1997," ZEI Working Papers B 11-1998, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    9. Piero Ugolini, 1996. "National Bank of Poland; The Road to Indirect Instruments," IMF Occasional Papers 144, International Monetary Fund.
    10. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
    11. Wojciech S. Maliszewski, 2000. "Central Bank Independence in Transition Economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 749-789, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Héricourt & Iuliana Matei, 2007. "Transmission de la politique monétaire dans les pays d'E urope centrale et orientale : que savons-nous vraiment ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 221-238.
    2. Jérôme Héricourt, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission in the CEECs : revisited results using alternative econometrics," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla05020, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    3. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    5. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Égert, Balázs, 2010. "The effect of foreign shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 461-477, July.
    6. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Balazs Egert, 2010. "The VARying Effect of Foreign Shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp989, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. MEZUI-MBENG, Pamphile, 2010. "Tramsission de la politique monétaire: le cas des pays de la CEMAC
      [Monetary policy transmission: the case of the CEMAC]      ," MPRA Paper 26032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    9. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe : gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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