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Monetary Policy in Transition: Structural Econometric Modelling and Policy Simulations

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  • Wojciech Maliszewski

Abstract

In this paper I estimate a Bayesian structural VAR models for the Czech Republic and Poland, allowing for changes in parameters between the two monetary policy arrangements. The four-variables structural VAR methodology adopted in the study is successful in identifying monetary policy shocks and their effects for the Czech and Polish economies. The time-varying model is capable of detecting a change in the policy reaction function consistent with introduction of the floating exchange rate system and switching to short-term interest rate as the main policy instrument. The results indicate the dominant role of exchange rate in the monetary transmission mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojciech Maliszewski, 2002. "Monetary Policy in Transition: Structural Econometric Modelling and Policy Simulations," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0246, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0246
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fank Smets, 1997. "Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks in France, Germany and Italy: The Role of The Exchange Rate," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(III), pages 597-616, September.
    2. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of inflation and output fluctuations in Poland and Hungary: Implications for full membership in the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 16-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
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    5. repec:bla:etrans:v:9:y:2001:i:1:p:153-174 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Tomás J. T. Baliño & Juhi Dhawan & V. Sundararajan, 1994. "Payments System Reforms and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(3), pages 383-410, September.
    7. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    8. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    9. Horvath, Julius & Jonas, Jiri, 1998. "Exchange rate regimes in the transition economies: Case study of the Czech Republic: 1990-1997," ZEI Working Papers B 11-1998, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    10. Mr. Piero Ugolini, 1996. "National Bank of Poland: The Road to Indirect Instruments," IMF Occasional Papers 1996/010, International Monetary Fund.
    11. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
    12. Wojciech S. Maliszewski, 2000. "Central Bank Independence in Transition Economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 749-789, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Héricourt & Iuliana Matei, 2007. "Transmission de la politique monétaire dans les pays d'E urope centrale et orientale : que savons-nous vraiment ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 221-238.
    2. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, April.
    3. Jérôme Héricourt, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission in the CEECs: a comprehensive analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00193947, HAL.
    4. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    5. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Égert, Balázs, 2010. "The effect of foreign shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 461-477, July.
    6. MEZUI-MBENG, Pamphile, 2010. "Tramsission de la politique monétaire: le cas des pays de la CEMAC [Monetary policy transmission: the case of the CEMAC]," MPRA Paper 26032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    9. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodriguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Balazs Egert, 2010. "The VARying Effect of Foreign Shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 3080, CESifo.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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