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The VARying Effect of Foreign Shocks in Central and Eastern Europe

  • Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez

    ()

  • Amalia Morales-Zumaquero

    ()

  • Balazs Egert

    ()

This paper investigates the impact of international shocks – interest rate, commodity price and industrial production shocks – on key macroeconomic variables in ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries by using near-VAR models and monthly data from the early 1990s to 2009. In contrast to previous work, the empirical analysis takes explicit account of the possibility of (multiple) structural breaks in the underlying time series. We establish strong evidence of structural breaks, particularly along the years 2007 and 2008, suggesting the very relevant impact of the recent global crisis on CEE economies. Moreover, our results suggest that the way how countries react to world commodity price shocks is related to the underlying economic structure and the credibility of the monetary policy. We also find that some countries like Slovakia and Slovenia – already euro area members – react stronger to foreign industrial production shocks than other countries and that the responses to such shocks are strongly correlated for selected CEE countries. Nevertheless, our results also shed light on substantial differences in responses to foreign interest rate shocks that originate from the US or the euro area.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp989.pdf
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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp989.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2010-989
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  1. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Thomas Reininger, 2006. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in Central and Eastern Europe: Reborn from Ashes Merely to Pass Away?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 88-111.
  2. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  7. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Herrera, Ana Maria & Pesavento, Elena, 2005. "The Decline in U.S. Output Volatility: Structural Changes and Inventory Investment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 462-472, October.
  9. Michael Frenkel & Christiane Nickel, 2005. "How Symmetric are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 53-74, 03.
  10. Wang, Jiahui & Zivot, Eric, 2000. "A Bayesian Time Series Model of Multiple Structural Changes in Level, Trend, and Variance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 374-86, July.
  11. Luca Dedola & Francesco Lippi, 2000. "The monetary transmission mechanism; evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 389, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
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  16. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  17. Adam Elbourne & Jakob de Haan, 2004. "Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in EMU: The Robustness of VAR Conclusions and Cecchetti’s Legal Family Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 1327, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Balázs Égert & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Evžen Kočenda & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2006. "Structural changes in Central and Eastern European economies: breaking news or breaking the ice?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 85-103, June.
  19. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  20. Zsolt Darvas, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in the New EU Member States: Evidence from Time-Varying Coefficient Vector Autoregression," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 140-155.
  21. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Relative inflation-forecast as monetary policy target for convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1061-1081.
  22. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for monetary convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 817-837, October.
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