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The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic (evidence from VAR analysis)

Author

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  • Katerina Arnostova
  • Jaromir Hurnik

Abstract

Due to significant lags between a monetary policy action and the subsequent responses in the economy, understanding the transmission mechanism is of primary importance for conducting monetary policy. This paper analyses the monetary policy transmission mechanism using VAR models - the most widely used empirical methodology for analyzing the transmission mechanism in the Czech economy. Using the VAR methodology, the paper tries to evaluate the effects of an exogenous shock to monetary policy. The results show that an unexpected monetary policy tightening leads to a fall in output, whereas prices remain persistent for a certain time. The exchange rate reaction then heavily depends on the data sample used. Although it is clear that due to the rather short time span of the data, the results should be taken with caution, they at least show that the basic framework of how monetary policy affects the economy does not differ significantly either from what would be predicted by the theory or from the results obtained for more developed economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Katerina Arnostova & Jaromir Hurnik, 2005. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic (evidence from VAR analysis)," Working Papers 2005/04, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2005/04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Hoffmann, 2010. "An Overinvestment Cycle In Central And Eastern Europe?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 711-734, November.
    2. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, April.
    3. Julia Durcova, 2021. "The Impact of Interest Rate Transmission Channel on the Prices Development in the Eurozone Countries," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 17(2), pages 23-35.
    4. Magdalena Borys & Roman Horváth & Michal Franta, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 419-443, November.
    5. OROS, Cornel & ROMOCEA-TURCU, Camelia, 2009. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanisms In The Ceecs: A Structural Var Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    6. Al-Mashat Rania & Billmeier Andreas, 2008. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 32-82, September.
    7. Roman Horváth, 2005. "Financial Accelerator Effects in the Balance Sheets of Czech Firms," Working Papers IES 96, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
    8. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Damdinsuren, Batnyam & Baasansuren, Lkhagvajav, 2007. "Monetary policy and bond market development: A case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 72193, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2007.
    9. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Balazs Egert, 2010. "The VARying Effect of Foreign Shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp989, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Frank Hespeler, 2013. "A VECM evaluation of monetary transmission in Uzbekistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 219-253, May.
    11. Radmila Krkošková, 2019. "Modelování makroekonomických agregátů české a slovenské ekonomiky pomocí var modelů [Modelling Macroeconomic Aggregates of the Czech and Slovak Economies Using Var Models]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(6), pages 593-610.
    12. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2010. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Mauritius Using a VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2010/036, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Ivan Baboucek & Martin Jancar, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio," Working Papers 2005/01, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Impulse response; monetary policy; transmission mechanism; vector autoregressions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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