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A VECM evaluation of monetary transmission in Uzbekistan


  • Frank Hespeler



This paper presents a VAR/VECM analysis of the monetary transmission process in Uzbekistan for the available data from 2000 to 2009. The general findings obtained support the hypothesis that the interest rate channel in Uzbekistan is relatively weak. Monetary transmission via the exchange rate channel seems to be stronger, even if the form of the channel remains quite ambiguous or rather chaotic. Partially this chaos can be blamed on the contradiction between existing restrictions on capital mobility and the dual objectives of a development of the financial sector and provision of macroeconomic stability. On an analytical level this paper suggests the use of a specific methodology for the future evaluation of monetary policy in Uzbekistan. This is especially important, because in future improved and/or more extensive data might alter some of the results obtained so far. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Hespeler, 2013. "A VECM evaluation of monetary transmission in Uzbekistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 219-253, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:46:y:2013:i:2:p:219-253 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-012-9125-4

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan's Foreign Exchange Regime," IMF Working Papers 00/61, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Balazs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," CESifo Working Paper Series 1739, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a FAVAR Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 867, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Jurgen A. Doornik & H. Peter Boswijk, 2005. "Distribution approximations for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 797-810.
    6. Asel Isaková, 2008. "Monetary Policy Efficiency in the Economies of Central Asia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(11-12), pages 525-553, December.
    7. Katerina Arnostova & Jaromir Hurnik, 2005. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic (evidence from VAR analysis)," Working Papers 2005/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    8. Damdinsuren, Batnyam & Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2008. "Small Inflation Model of Mongolia (SIMOM)," MPRA Paper 72139, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2008.
    9. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin05060 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    11. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    12. Alexandr Akimov & Brian Dollery, 2009. "The Uzbek Approach to Financial System Development: An Analysis of Achievements and Failures," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:200905, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    13. Svetlana Vtyurina & Fahad Alturki, 2010. "Inflation in Tajikistan; Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 10/17, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Nikolic, Milan, 2000. "Money Growth-Inflation Relationship in Postcommunist Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 108-133, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Abdul Munim Joarder & A. K. M. Nurul Hossain & Monir Uddin Ahmed, 2016. "Does the central bank contribute to the political monetary cycles in Bangladesh?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 365-394, November.


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