Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a FAVAR Analysis
We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the past decade (1999-2008). The analysis is based on country VAR models augmented by a regional common factor structure (FAVAR model). The models include nominal exchange rates, the common factor of exchange rates in the CIS countries, and global drivers such as gold, oil and share prices. Global, regional and idiosyncratic shocks are identified in a standard Cholesky fashion. Based on the decomposition of the variance of forecast errors, their relevance for exchange rates is explored. As a quite robust finding, CIS exchange rates have become more vulnerable to global shocks towards the end of the sample.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003.
"Disintegration and Trade,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2000. "Disintegration and Trade," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 353, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Disintegration and trade," ZEI Working Papers B 24-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2001. "Disintegration and Trade," LICOS Discussion Papers 9901, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2000. "Disintegration and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2641, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Balazs Egert & Carol Leonard, 2008.
"Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 147-165, April.
- Égert, Balázs & Leonard, Carol S., 2007. "Dutch desease scare in Kazakhstan : is it real?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Bal??zs ??gert & Carol S. Leonard, 2007. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is It Real?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp866, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Balazs Egert & Carol S. Leonard, 2007. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1961, CESifo Group Munich.
- Fungáčová Z. & Solanko L., 2009. "Risk-taking by Russian banks: do location, ownership and size matter?," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 13(1), pages 101-129.
- Zuzana Fungáčová & Laura Solanko, 2009. "Risk-taking by Russian banks: Do location, ownership and size matter?," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Fungáčová, Zuzana & Solanko, Laura, 2008. "Risk-taking by Russian banks : do location, ownership and size matter?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Schnabl, Gunther, 2005. "International capital markets and exchange rate stabilization in the CIS," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 425-440, September.
- Gunther Schnabl, 2005. "International Capital Markets and Exchange Rate Stabilization in the CIS," International Finance 0505015, EconWPA.
- Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir & Tonis, Alexander, 2008. "Mechanisms of Resource Curse, Economic Policy and Growth," MPRA Paper 20570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kutan, Ali M. & Wyzan, Michael L., 2005. "Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996-2003: Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 242-255, June.
- Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease : Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
- Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2000. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies: The case of Ploand and Hungary," ZEI Working Papers B 14-2000, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
- repec:hrv:faseco:33078568 is not listed on IDEAS
- Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease; Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 07/102, International Monetary Fund.
- Vladimir Chaplygin & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Monetary integration in the ex-Soviet Union: A 'union of four'? ," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)