IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp867.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a FAVAR Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Dreger
  • Jarko Fidrmuc

Abstract

We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the past decade (1999-2008). The analysis is based on country VAR models augmented by a regional common factor structure (FAVAR model). The models include nominal exchange rates, the common factor of exchange rates in the CIS countries, and global drivers such as gold, oil and share prices. Global, regional and idiosyncratic shocks are identified in a standard Cholesky fashion. Based on the decomposition of the variance of forecast errors, their relevance for exchange rates is explored. As a quite robust finding, CIS exchange rates have become more vulnerable to global shocks towards the end of the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a FAVAR Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 867, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp867
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.96302.de/dp867.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balazs Egert & Carol Leonard, 2008. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 147-165, April.
    2. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
    3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    4. repec:hrv:faseco:33078568 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
    6. Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease; Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 07/102, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Vladimir Chaplygin & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Monetary integration in the ex-Soviet Union: A 'union of four'? ," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, March.
    8. Fungáčová Z. & Solanko L., 2009. "Risk-taking by Russian banks: do location, ownership and size matter?," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 13(1), pages 101-129.
    9. Schnabl, Gunther, 2005. "International capital markets and exchange rate stabilization in the CIS," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 425-440, September.
    10. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir & Tonis, Alexander, 2008. "Mechanisms of Resource Curse, Economic Policy and Growth," MPRA Paper 20570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kutan, Ali M. & Wyzan, Michael L., 2005. "Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996-2003: Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 242-255, June.
    12. Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease : Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    13. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; CIS countries; financial crisis; FAVAR models;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp867. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.