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The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan

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  • Fakhri Hasanov

Abstract

Using quarterly data from 2000-2007 and applying Error Correction Model and Johansen Co-integration Approaches I estimate the impact of real oil price on the real exchange rate of Azerbaijani manat. Estimation outputs derived from these approaches are very close to each other and indicate that real oil price has statistically significant positive impact on real exchange rate in the long-run. Besides, revealed that relative price as a proxy for productivity has also explanatory power in explaining long-run behavior of real exchange rate. Estimated Error Correction Term indicates that half-life of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium level takes 3-4 quarters. Since findings of this study occur as results of high fiscal expansion my policy suggestions mainly related to Fiscal policy implementations.

Suggested Citation

  • Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1041
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    Cited by:

    1. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2012. "The impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports. Is there an asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium?," MPRA Paper 43728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hasanov, Fakhri & Mammadov, Fuad, 2010. "The Role of the Fiscal Policy in the Development of the Non-Resource," MPRA Paper 65571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Amin Z. A. & El-Sakka M. I. T., 2016. "Determining Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the Oil-Based GCC Economies," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(7), pages 374-389, July.
    4. repec:gam:jecomi:v:5:y:2017:i:2:p:13-:d:96167 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sabiroglu, Ilkin M. & Bashirli, Samad, 2012. "Input–output analysis in an oil-rich economy: The case of Azerbaijan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 73-80.
    6. repec:gam:jecomi:v:5:y:2017:i:2:p:19-:d:101264 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2009. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Komain Jiranyakul, 2015. "Oil Price Volatility and Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Thailand," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 574-579.
    9. Syed Shujaat AHMED & Abdul QAYYUM, 2016. "The Effect of Oil Prices and Regime Switches On Real Effective Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Markov Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 643-661, December.
    10. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Tayfur Bayat & Saban Nazlioglu & Selim Kayhan, 2015. "Exchange Rate and Oil Price Interactions in Transition Economies: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 267-285, June.
    12. Hasanov, Fakhri & Huseynov, Fariz, 2013. "Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 597-610.
    13. Fakhri, Hasanov & Khudayar, Hasanli, 2011. "Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?," MPRA Paper 29559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Rodrigo Costamagna & Gustavo Rossini, 2016. "Competitive Devaluations in Commodity-Based Economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group," CESifo Working Paper Series 5907, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real effective exchange rate; Real oil price; Relative productivity; Azerbaijani manat; Dutch Disease; Oil-exporting Countries; Johansen Co-integration Approach; Error Correction Modeling; Half-life Speed;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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