Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break
This paper examines whether Russia suffers from “Dutch Disease” by investigating the real appreciation of the Russian ruble and the relative de-industrialization in the post Soviet Union-era. According to UNDP Russia Report (2009) the Russian economy has indeed exhibited some typical symptoms of “Dutch Disease” in recent years as upward movements in oil prices are accompanied by a reduction in the share of manufacturing output and an increase in service prices. Furthermore, the report claims that these developments may trigger a recession in Russia in the future. Using Gregory and Hansen (1996a, 1996b) and Arai and Kurozumi (2007) structural break cointegration frameworks, our results indicate that the Russian economy exhibits some typical symptoms of “Dutch Disease”. Although the diagnosis is not certain, the risk is evident. Hence, policies that would make the Russian economy more robust to shocks in the oil price need to be carefully designed and implemented.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease; Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 07/102, International Monetary Fund.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2007.
"Cointegration with Structural Breaks : An Application to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle,"
Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
WP2006-057, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Kejriwal Mohitosh, 2008. "Cointegration with Structural Breaks: An Application to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-39, March.
- Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
- Rudiger Ahrend & Donato de Rosa & William Tompson, 2007. "Russian Manufacturing and the Threat of ‘Dutch Disease': A Comparison of Competitiveness Developments in Russian and Ukrainian Industry," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 540, OECD Publishing.
- E. Gurvich & V. Sokolov & A. Ulyukaev., 2008. "The Impact of the Balassa—Samuelson Effect on the Real Ruble Exchange Rate: The Assessment," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
- Yoichi Arai & Eiji Kurozumi, 2007. "Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with a Structural Break," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 705-739.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- R. Ahrend., 2006.
"How to Sustain Growth in a Resource Based Economy? The Main Concepts and their Application to the Russian Case,"
N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
- Rudiger Ahrend, 2006. "How to Sustain Growth in a Resource Based Economy?: The Main Concepts and their Application to the Russian Case," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 478, OECD Publishing.
- Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992.
"residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995.
"Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ruta, Michele & Venables, Anthony J., 2012.
"International trade in natural resources: Practice and policy,"
WTO Staff Working Papers
ERSD-2012-07, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
- Michele Ruta & Anthony J. Venables, 2012. "International Trade in Natural Resources: Practice and Policy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 331-352, 08.
- Ruta, Michele & Venables, Anthony J, 2012. "International trade in natural resources: Practice and policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 8903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michele Ruta & Anthony J. Venables, 2012. "International Trade in Natural Resources: Practice and Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 3778, CESifo Group Munich.
- Michele Ruta & Anthony J venables, 2012. "International Trade in Natural Resources: Practice and policy," OxCarre Working Papers 084, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
- Phillips, P C B, 1987.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
- Tom Doan, . "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar (bio) & Hassan Mohammadi (bio), 2011.
"Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries: A Bounds Testing Approach,"
Journal of Developing Areas,
Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 45(1), pages 313-322, July-Dece.
- Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Mohammadi, Hassan, 2008. "Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries: A Bounds Testing Approach," MPRA Paper 13435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sosunov, K. & Ushakov, N., 2009. "Determination of the Real Exchange Rate of the Ruble and Assessment of Long-Run Policy of Real Exchange Rate Targeting," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 3-4, pages 97-121.
- Victoria Dobrynskaya & Edouard Turkisch, 2010. "Economic diversification and Dutch disease in Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 283-302.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Egert, Balazs, 2005.
"Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?,"
Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
- Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp770, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Égert, Balázs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey : healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Habib, Maurizio Michael & Kalamova, Margarita Manolova, 2007. "Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 0839, European Central Bank.
- Algieri, Bernardina, 2004. "The Effects Of The Dutch Disease In Russia," Discussion Papers 18721, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
- Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease : Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Hassan Mohammadi & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, 2012. "Oil prices and exchange rates in oil-exporting countries: evidence from TAR and M-TAR models," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 766-779, July.
- International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country; The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 03/93, International Monetary Fund.
- Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
- Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
- Tom Doan, . "GREGORYHANSEN: RATS procedure to implement Gregory-Hansen test for Cointegration with breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00082, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:4:p:605-612. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.