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Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia

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  • Mironov, V.V.
  • Petronevich, A.V.

Abstract

​This paper examines the problem of Dutch disease in Russia during the oil boom of the 2000s, from both the theoretical and empirical points of view. Our analysis is based on the classical model of Dutch disease by Corden and Neary (1982). We examine the relationship between changes in the real effective exchange rate of the ruble and the evolution of the Russian economic structure during the period 2002 – 2013. We empirically test the main effects of Dutch disease, controlling for specific features of the Russian economy, namely the large role of state-owned organizations. We estimate the resource movement and spending effects as determined by the theoretical model and find the presence of several signs of Dutch disease: the negative impact of the real effective exchange rate on growth in the manufacturing sector, the growth of total income of workers, and the positive link between the real effective exchange rate and returns on capital in all three sectors. Although also predicted by the model and clearly observable, the shift of labor from manufacturing to services cannot be explained by ruble appreciation alone. Publication keywords: Dutch disease, resource curse, real effective exchange rate, cointegration model, economic policy, Russia

Suggested Citation

  • Mironov, V.V. & Petronevich, A.V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2015_003
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    3. Fakhri Hasanov & Jeyhun Mikayilov & Cihan Bulut & Elchin Suleymanov & Fuzuli Aliyev, 2017. "The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Barczikay, Tamás & Biedermann, Zsuzsánna & Szalai, László, 2020. "An investigation of a partial Dutch disease in Botswana," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Shao, Shuai & Zhang, Yan & Tian, Zhihua & Li, Ding & Yang, Lili, 2020. "The regional Dutch disease effect within China: A spatial econometric investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    7. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    8. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Naidoo, Lutchmee & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amoo, Nii, 2018. "Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-88.
    9. Rahmati, Mohammad H. & Karimirad, Ali, 2017. "Subsidy and natural resource curse: Evidence from plant level observations in Iran," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 90-99.
    10. Char-lee Moyle & Fabrizio Carmigani & Brent Moyle & Sajid Anwar, 2021. "Beyond Dutch Disease: Are there mediators of the mining–tourism nexus?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 744-761, June.
    11. Aganin, Artem & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2018. "Volatility of ruble exchange rate: Oil and sanctions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 52, pages 5-21.
    12. Falkowski Krzysztof, 2017. "Long-Term Comparative Advantages of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in International Trade," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 53(4), pages 27-49, December.
    13. Ville Kaitila, 2016. "GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 129-145, April.
    14. Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Izotov, 2018. "Economic Growth and the Trade of Russian Regions," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 4, pages 92-114.
    15. Akindinova, N. & Nazarova, A. & Chepel', A., 2018. "Far East Priority: Macro-Sectors in the Russian Economy: Structural Aspects and Responses to the External Conditions Changes," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 128-137.
    16. Abdulaziz Hamad Algaeed, 2017. "Oil Price Fluctuations and the Future of Saudi Arabian Non-Oil Traded Sector: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(4), pages 217-229.
    17. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    18. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Does oil price really matter for the wage arrears in Russia?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    19. Gasmi, Farid & Laourari, Imène, 2017. "Has Algeria suffered from the dutch disease?: Evidence from 1960–2013 data," TSE Working Papers 17-780, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    20. Shumilov, Andrei, 2019. "Модели Зависимости Реального Курса Рубля От Цены И Стоимости Экспорта Нефти: Сравнительный Анализ [Oil prices versus oil export revenues as fundamental factors of the real Russian ruble exchange ra," MPRA Paper 96400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Yang, Jinxuan & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Tan, Zhixiong & Umar, Muhammad & Koondhar, Mansoor Ahmed, 2021. "The competing role of natural gas and oil as fossil fuel and the non-linear dynamics of resource curse in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    22. Kristina V. Shvandar & Vsevolod Y. Cherkasov & Tatiana F. Burova, 2017. "Dutch Disease: Applying the Budget Rule and the Role of Structural Reforms," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia, issue 5, pages 20-32, October.
    23. Chang, Kuei-Feng & Lin, Jin-Xu & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2021. "Revisiting the Dutch disease thesis from the perspective of value-added trade," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    24. Marija Beg & Martina Basarac Serti?, 0000. "The Signs Of Dutch Disease In Croatia," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 11413238, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dutch disease; resource curse; real effective exchange rate; cointegration model; economic policy; russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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