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Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries: A Bounds Testing Approach

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  • Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar (bio)
  • Hassan Mohammadi (bio)

    (East Carolina University, USA
    Illinois State University, USA)

Abstract

We test the validity of the Dutch disease hypothesis by examining the relationship between real oil prices and real exchange rates in a sample of fourteen oil exporting countries. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds tests of cointegration support the existence of a stable relationship between real exchange rates and real oil prices in all countries, suggesting a strong support for the Dutch disease hypothesis. As for short-run, there are evidence of causality from oil prices to exchange rates in four countries; from exchange rates to oil prices in two countries; and bidirectional relations in another four countries. There is no evidence of causality in the remaining four countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar (bio) & Hassan Mohammadi (bio), 2011. "Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries: A Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 45(1), pages 313-322, July-Dece.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.45:year:2011:issue1:pp:313-322
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2020. "Does income inequality feed the Dutch disease?," PSE Working Papers halshs-03012653, HAL.
    2. Fakhri Hasanov & Jeyhun Mikayilov & Cihan Bulut & Elchin Suleymanov & Fuzuli Aliyev, 2017. "The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    5. Alssadek, Marwan & Benhin, James, 2023. "Natural resource curse: A literature survey and comparative assessment of regional groupings of oil-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Barczikay, Tamás & Biedermann, Zsuzsánna & Szalai, László, 2020. "An investigation of a partial Dutch disease in Botswana," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2009. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Zhao, Yinglan & Feng, Chen & Xu, Nuo & Peng, Song & Liu, Chang, 2023. "Early warning of exchange rate risk based on structural shocks in international oil prices using the LSTM neural network model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Nazeer Ahmed & Ma Dingchou & Abdul Qayyum, 2021. "Further Evidence on Asymmetry in the Impact of Oil Price on Exchange Rate and Stock Price in China using Daily Data," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(5), pages 1-83, May.
    10. Sugra Humbatova & Afag Huseyn & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2023. "Impact of Oil Factor on Investment: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-148, March.
    11. Olagbaju Ifeolu O & Akinbobola Temidayo O, 2016. "A Non-Linear Analysis of the Oil Price-Exchange Rate Nexus in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(4), pages 79-91.
    12. Tayfur Bayat & Saban Nazlioglu & Selim Kayhan, 2015. "Exchange Rate and Oil Price Interactions in Transition Economies: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 267-285, June.
    13. Hasanov, Fakhri & Huseynov, Fariz, 2013. "Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 597-610.
    14. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Ibrahim D. Raheem & Seref Bozoklu & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2022. "The Oil Price‐Macroeconomic fundamentals nexus for emerging market economies: Evidence from a wavelet analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1569-1590, January.
    15. Grant Mark Nülle & Graham A. Davis, 2018. "Neither Dutch nor disease?—natural resource booms in theory and empirics," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 35-59, May.
    16. Abubakar Lawan Ngoma & Normaz Wana Ismail & Zulkornain Yusop, 2016. "An Analysis of Real Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates in Five African Countries," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 51(2), pages 162-179, May.
    17. Benjamin Ighodalo Ehikioya & Alexander Ehimare Omankhanlen & Ayopo Abiola Babajide & Godswill Osagie Osuma & Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero, 2020. "Oil Price Fluctuations and Exchange Rate in Selected Sub-Saharan Africa countries: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 242-249.
    18. Dülger, Fikret & Lopcu, Kenan & Burgaç, Almıla & Ballı, Esra, 2013. "Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 605-612.
    19. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Nusair, Salah A., 2013. "Non-linearities in the dynamics of oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 341-353.
    20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Rodrigo Costamagna & Gustavo Rossini, 2016. "Competitive Devaluations in Commodity-Based Economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group," CESifo Working Paper Series 5907, CESifo.
    21. Benedictow, Andreas & Fjærtoft, Daniel & Løfsnæs, Ole, 2013. "Oil dependency of the Russian economy: An econometric analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 400-428.
    22. Merve Osmanbeyoglu & Nukhet Dogan & M. Hakan Berument, 2022. "Exchange rate regime, world oil prices and the Mexican economy," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 159-178, February.
    23. Salah A. Nusair & Khalid M. Kisswani, 2015. "Asian Real Exchange Rates And Oil Prices: A Cointegration Analysis Under Structural Breaks," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(S1), pages 1-25, December.
    24. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2014. "The Dutch disease effect in a high versus low oil dependent countries," Post-Print hal-01385965, HAL.
    25. Alssadek, Marwan & Benhin, James, 2021. "Oil boom, exchange rate and sectoral output: An empirical analysis of Dutch disease in oil-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Real exchange rates; Dutch disease; Cointegration; Autoregressive distributed lags;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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