IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_5907.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Competitive Devaluations in Commodity-Based Economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Rodrigo Costamagna
  • Gustavo Rossini

Abstract

This paper investigates whether there is an S-Curve in Colombia using bilateral and disaggregated quarterly data for the period 1991-2014. More precisely, the short-run effects of a depreciation on the TB are analysed in 27 industries covered by the PAG Free Trade Agreement. The S-Curve found in sectors representing 30% of total industrial production suggests that in these cases competitive devaluations have a positive effect on the TB in the short run. However, the regression analysis using both OLS and FE methods shows that sizable ones are needed to produce the desired effects on trade flows. Our findings have important policy implications: since only large competitive devaluations can restore TB equilibrium, industrial restructuring would appear to be a more sensible strategy, though this cannot be achieved in the short run and is instead a medium/long-term goal.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Rodrigo Costamagna & Gustavo Rossini, 2016. "Competitive Devaluations in Commodity-Based Economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group," CESifo Working Paper Series 5907, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5907
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5907.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "Trade liberalization and industrial growth in Pakistan: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1421-1429.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan & Artatrana Ratha, 2008. "The S-Curve in Emerging Markets," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(2), pages 341-351, June.
    4. Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar (bio) & Hassan Mohammadi (bio), 2011. "Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries: A Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 45(1), pages 313-322, July-Dece.
    5. Himarios, Daniel, 1989. "Do Devaluations Improve the Trade Balance? The Evidence Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 143-168, January.
    6. M Bahmani-Oskooee & A Ratha, 2009. "S-Curve Dynamics of Trade: Evidence from US-Canada Commodity Trade," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, March.
    7. José J. Cao-Alvira, 2014. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility on the Short- and Long-Run Trade Dynamics in Colombia," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 45-64, March.
    8. repec:syd:wpaper:2001-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Iikka Korhonen & Tuuli Juurikkala, 2009. "Equilibrium exchange rates in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(1), pages 71-79, January.
    10. Guglielmo Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(2), pages 189-206, July.
    11. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1998. "Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 440-453, September.
    12. Matiur Rahman & Muhammad Mustafa & Daryl Burckel, 1997. "Dynamics of the yen-dollar real exchange rate and the US-Japan real trade balance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 661-664.
    13. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Examining the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate: the case of China's trade with the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 507-510.
    14. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
    15. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artarana, 2007. "Bilateral S-curve between Japan and her trading partners," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 483-489, December.
    16. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2010. "The impact of real oil price on real effective exchange rate: The case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 33493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
    18. Christine A. McDaniel & Laurie-Ann Agama, 2003. "The NAFTA Preference and US-Mexico Trade: Aggregate-Level Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(7), pages 939-955, July.
    19. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard L Sprinkle, 2005. "An Error Correction Analysis of U.S.-Mexico Trade Flows," International Trade 0506003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease : Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    21. Baek, Jungho, 2007. "The J-curve effect and the US-Canada forest products trade," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 245-258, November.
    22. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott Hegerty, 2011. "The J-curve and NAFTA: evidence from commodity trade between the US and Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(13), pages 1579-1593.
    23. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
    24. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    25. Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease; Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 07/102, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    27. Aruna Kumar Dash, 2013. "Bilateral J-Curve between India and Her Trading Partners: A Quantitative Perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 318-338, December.
    28. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Brazil--US commodity trade and the J-Curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 1-13, January.
    29. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    30. Noland, Marcus, 1989. "Japanese Trade Elasticities and the J-Curve," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 175-179, February.
    31. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2010. "The J- and S-curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, November.
    32. Bustamante, Rafael & Morales, Fedor, 2009. "Probando la condición de Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva-J: Evidencia empírica para el caso peruano," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 16, pages 103-126.
    33. Lal, Anil K. & Lowinger, Thomas C., 2002. "The J-Curve: Evidence from East Asia," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 397-415.
    34. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2008. "S-Curve at the industry level: evidence from US–UK commodity trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 141-152, August.
    35. Hakan Berument & Nergiz Dincer, 2005. "Denomination composition of trade and trade balance: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1177-1191.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    devaluations; trade balance; S-Curve; PAG Free Trade Agreement;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5907. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.