IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-03e00003.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a J-curve?

Author

Listed:
  • OLUGBENGA ONAFOWORA

    (SUSQUEHANNA UNIVERSITY)

Abstract

This paper examines the short run and long run effects of real exchange rate changes on the real trade balance of three ASEAN countries in their bilateral trade to the US and Japan within a cointegrating vector error correction model (VECM). Generalized impulse response funtions are estimated to investigate the response to shocks. VECM estimates suggest one long-run steady-state cointegrating relationship among real trade balance, real exchange rate, real domestic and foreign income in each country. Although considerable variations exist in the results, overall the generalized impulse response functions suggest that the Marshall-Lerner condition holds in the long-run with varying degree of J-curve effects in the short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Olugbenga Onafowora, 2003. "Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a J-curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(18), pages 1-13.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-03e00003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2003/Volume5/EB-03E00003A.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Himarios, Daniel, 1989. "Do Devaluations Improve the Trade Balance? The Evidence Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 143-168, January.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Gupta-Kapoor Anju & Ramakrishnan Uma, 1999. "Is There A J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 71-79.
    7. Greg Leonard & Alan C. Stockman, 2002. "Current Accounts and Exchange Rates: A New Look at the Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 483-496, August.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Janardhanan Alse, 1994. "Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 453-464, Fall.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
    10. Miles, Marc A, 1979. "The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 600-620, June.
    11. Bayoumi, Tamim, 1998. "Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 1970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
    13. Peter Wilson, 2001. "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies—Does the J-Curve Exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 389-413, October.
    14. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    15. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
    16. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-264, May.
    17. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    18. Elif Akbostanci, 2002. "Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve," ERC Working Papers 0205, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2002.
    19. Noland, Marcus, 1989. "Japanese Trade Elasticities and the J-Curve," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 175-179, February.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    21. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
    22. Han-Min Hsing & Andreas Savvides, 1996. "Does a J-curve exist for Korea and Taiwan?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 127-145, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Test of the J-curve for the DR-CAFTA countries and policy implications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 293-301, September.
    2. Hsing Yu, 2008. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Huseyin Kalyoncu & Ilhan Ozturk & Seyfettin Artan & Kahraman Kalyoncu, 2009. "Devaluation and trade balance in Latin American countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 27(1), pages 115-128.
    4. Cem IŞIK & Magdalena RADULESCU & Aleksandra FEDAJEV, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-237, June.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jehanzeb Cheema, 2009. "Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Currency Depreciation On The Bilateral Trade Balance Between Pakistan And Her Major Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 19-41, June.
    6. Hooy, Chee Wooi & Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008. "The Impact of Yuan/Ringgit on Bilateral Trade Balance of China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 11306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kimbugwe, Hassan, 2006. "The bilateral J-Curve hypothesis between Turkey and her 9 trading partners," MPRA Paper 4254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    9. Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
    10. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & HALICIOGLU, Ferda & GHODSI, Seyed Hesam, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on British Bilateral Trade Balances," MPRA Paper 73477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hsing, Han-Min, 2005. "Re-examination of J-curve effect for Japan, Korea and Taiwan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 43-58, January.
    12. Elif Akbostanci, 2002. "Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve," ERC Working Papers 0205, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2002.
    13. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "Utilizarea cursurilor valutare drept ancore nominale antiinflaţioniste [The use of exchange rates as nominal anchors]," MPRA Paper 52415, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Rodrigo Costamagna & Gustavo Rossini, 2016. "Competitive Devaluations in Commodity-Based Economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group," CESifo Working Paper Series 5907, CESifo.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2012. "J-Curve: Singapore versus her Major Trading Partners," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 31(4), pages 515-522, December.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:18:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2020. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(25), pages 2679-2693, May.
    18. Houssem Eddine Chebbi & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2011. "Agricultural Trade Balance and Exchange Rate Depreciation: The Case of Tunisia," Working Papers 610, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 Jan 2011.
    19. Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Musa Shafiq, 2022. "The J-curve phenomenon in Afghanistan and its major trading partners: evidence from a non-linear ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    20. Bilgin, Cevat, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 101316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN Countries;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-03e00003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.