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Current Accounts and Exchange Rates: A New Look at the Evidence

Author

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  • Greg Leonard
  • Alan C. Stockman

Abstract

A small literature has developed exploring nonlinearities in exchange rate data. This paper studies bivariate statistical relationships between current accounts, exchange rates, and cross–country ratios of GDP. The analysis differs from previous empirical work on these issues in using nonparametric methods to allow for nonlinearities, in employing a minimum of statistical assumptions, and in focusing on a fundamental characterization of the data. The authors present new evidence on the connections between exchange rates, the current account, and GDP. While the evidence loosely supports some common beliefs about the data, it conflicts with some common theoretical models. Thus the results pose new challenges for theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Greg Leonard & Alan C. Stockman, 2002. "Current Accounts and Exchange Rates: A New Look at the Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 483-496, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:3:p:483-496
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9396.00345
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael G. Arghyrou & Georgios Chortareas, 2008. "Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 747-764, September.
    2. Mohamed Arouri & Arif Billah Dar & Niyati Bhanja & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & FrédéricTeulon, 2014. "Interlinkage between Real Exchange rate and Current Account Behaviors: Evidence from India," Working Papers 2014-88, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    3. Cardi, Olivier, 2007. "Another View Of The J-Curve," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 153-174, April.
    4. CARDI, Oliver & BERTINELLI, Luisito, 2004. "A formal model of krugman’s intuition on the J-curve," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2004043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Ibrahim K. Sule and Mohammed Shuaibu, 2020. "Current Account Behavior, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and Relative Output in Nigeria," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 77-99, September.
    6. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Exchange Rates, International Trade and Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. Holmes Mark J. & Panagiotidis Theodore, 2009. "Cointegration and Asymmetric Adjustment: Some New Evidence Concerning the Behavior of the U.S. Current Account," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, June.
    8. Gil Kim & Lian An & Yoonbai Kim, 2012. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate and current account," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 139-160, December.
    9. A H Ahmad & Eric J Pentecost, 2012. "The Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in African Countries," Department of Economics Working Papers 4/12, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
    11. Theo Panagiotidis & Mark J Holmes, 2005. "Sustainability and Asymmetric Adjustment: Some New Evidence Concerning Behaviour of the US Current Account," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-088 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Cavallo, Michele & Ghironi, Fabio, 2002. "Net foreign assets and the exchange rate: Redux revived," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1057-1097, July.
    14. Adnan Velic, 2024. "Current Account Imbalances, Real Exchange Rates, and Nominal Exchange Rate Variability," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-545, July.
    15. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "The Costs to Consumers of a Depreciated Conversion Rate to the Euro," MPRA Paper 5723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chayawadee Chai-anant & Ubonrat Jantarang, 2004. "Current Account Adjustment and Policy Instrument Responsiveness," Working Papers 2004-04, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    17. Elif Akbostanci, 2002. "Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve," ERC Working Papers 0205, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2002.
    18. Jens R Clausen & Magda Kandil, 2009. "On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 338-366.
    19. Olugbenga Onafowora, 2003. "Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a J-curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(18), pages 1-13.
    20. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:18:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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