IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach

  • Kyophilavong, Phouphet
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad
  • Uddin, Gazi Salah

This study aims to test the existence of J-curve phenomenon in Laos economy using quarterly data over the period of 1993–2010. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is used to examine short run as well as long run impact of real depreciation of Lao kip on Lao trade balance. The empirical results suggest that there is J-curve effect in case of Laos. The impact of real depreciation of the Lao kip on Lao trade balance is insignificant in long run. In short-run, real depreciation has inverse impact on Lao's trade balance. The long-run trade balance is determined by domestic income.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313003301
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 35 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 833-839

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:833-839
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Tarlok Singh, 2004. "Testing J-curve hypothesis and analysing the effect of exchange rate volatility on the balance of trade in India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 227-245, 05.
  2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2012. "J-Curve: Singapore versus her Major Trading Partners," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 31(4), pages 515-522, December.
  3. Ananda Weliwita & E. M. Ekanayake, 1998. "Demand for money in Sri Lanka during the post-1977 period: a cointegration and error correction analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(9), pages 1219-1229.
  4. Muhammad Shahbaz, 2010. "Income inequality-economic growth and non-linearity: a case of Pakistan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(8), pages 613-636, July.
  5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  6. Iwata, Hiroki & Okada, Keisuke & Samreth, Sovannroeun, 2010. "Empirical Study on the Determinants of CO2 Emissions: Evidence from OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 21520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2006. "How sensitive are Malaysia's bilateral trade flows to depreciation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1279-1286.
  8. Muhammad Shahbaz & Rehmat Ullah Awan & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "The exchange value of the Pakistan rupee & Pakistan trade balance:an ARDL bounds testing approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(2), pages 68-93, January-M.
  9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2010. "The J- and S-curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, September.
  10. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Darrat, Ali F. & Al-Mutawa, Ahmed, 1996. "Modelling money demand in the United Arab Emirates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 65-87.
  12. Subrata Ghatak & Jalal Siddiki, 2001. "The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 573-583.
  13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jehanzeb Cheema, 2009. "Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Currency Depreciation On The Bilateral Trade Balance Between Pakistan And Her Major Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 19-41, June.
  14. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
  15. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Faridul, Islam & Naveed, Aamir, 2011. "Is devaluation contractionary? empirical evidence for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 32520, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2011.
  16. Mohsen Bahmani Oskooee & Magda Kandil, 2007. "Real and nominal effective exchange rates in MENA countries: 1970-2004," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(19), pages 2489-2501.
  17. Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2005. "Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Malaysia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 83-102, 03.
  18. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2004. "New Zealand's trade balance: evidence of the J-curve and granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 351-354.
  19. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
  20. Santi Chaisrisawatsuk & Subhash Sharma & Abdur Chowdhury, 2004. "Money demand stability under currency substitution: some recent evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 19-27.
  21. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2008. "S-Curve at the industry level: evidence from US–UK commodity trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 141-152, August.
  22. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  23. Gupta-Kapoor Anju & Ramakrishnan Uma, 1999. "Is There A J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 71-79.
  24. Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992. "The power of cointegration tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Thanh, Nguyen Ngoc & Kalirajan, Kaliappa, 2006. "Can devaluation be effective in improving the balance of payments in Vietnam?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-476, May.
  26. Sadullah Celik & Huseyin Kaya, 2010. "Real exchange rates and bilateral trade dynamics of Turkey: panel cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 791-795.
  27. David Matesanz & Guadalupe Fugarolas, 2009. "Exchange rate policy and trade balance: a cointegration analysis of the Argentine experience since 1962," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2571-2582.
  28. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
  29. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  30. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2009. "The J-curve: Indonesia vs. Her Major Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 765-777.
  31. Nguyen Ngoc Thanh & Kaliappa Kalirajan, 2005. "The Importance of Exchange Rate Policy in Promoting Vietnam's Exports," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3-4), pages 511-529.
  32. Swarnjit Arora & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "Bilateral J-curve between India and her trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1037-1041.
  33. Peter Montiel & Bijan B. Aghevli & Mohsin S. Khan, 1991. "Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries; Some Analytical Issues," IMF Occasional Papers 78, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2006. "The J Curve: China Versus Her Trading Partners," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 323-343, October.
  35. Stephen K. Layson, 1983. "Homicide and Deterrence: Another View of the Canadian Time-Series Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 52-73, February.
  36. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
  37. Albert Wijeweera & Brian Dollery, 2013. "J-curve disparity between the goods sector and the services sector: evidence from Australia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 452-456, March.
  38. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 617-622, February.
  39. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
  40. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  41. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  42. B Ouattara, 2004. "Modelling the Long Run Determinants of Private Investment in Senegal," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0413, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  43. Peter Wilson, 2001. "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies—Does the J-Curve Exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 389-413, October.
  44. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:18:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
  46. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Examining the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate: the case of China's trade with the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 507-510.
  47. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
  48. Samreth, Sovannroeun, 2008. "Estimating Money Demand Function in Cambodia: ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 16274, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2009.
  49. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 2001. "How stable is M2 money demand function in Japan?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 455-461, December.
  50. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2007. "The S-curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 430-439, 05.
  51. Olugbenga Onafowora, 2003. "Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a J-curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(18), pages 1-13.
  52. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:833-839. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.