IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v41y2009i20p2571-2582.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate policy and trade balance: a cointegration analysis of the Argentine experience since 1962

Author

Listed:
  • David Matesanz
  • Guadalupe Fugarolas

Abstract

Using multivariate cointegration tests for nonstationary data and vector error correction models, this article examines the determinants of trade balance (TB) for Argentina over the last forty to fifty years taking into account that the short-run impacts of currency depreciation on the TB behaviour may differ from the long-run effects. Our investigation confirms the existence of long-run relationships among TB, real exchange rate (RER) and foreign and domestic incomes for Argentina during different RER management policies. Based on the estimations, the Marshall-Lerner condition is checked and, by means of impulse response functions, we trace the effect of a one-time shock to the RER on the TB not finding support for a J-curve pattern in the short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • David Matesanz & Guadalupe Fugarolas, 2009. "Exchange rate policy and trade balance: a cointegration analysis of the Argentine experience since 1962," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2571-2582.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:20:p:2571-2582
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701222660
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840701222660
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840701222660?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Syed Mahmud & Aman Ullah & Eray Yucel, 2004. "Testing Marshall-Lerner condition: a non-parametric approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 231-236.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Wong Hock Tsen, 2006. "Is there a long-run relationship between trade balance and terms of trade? The case of Malaysia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 307-311.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Examining the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate: the case of China's trade with the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 507-510.
    5. Christine Richaud & AristomEne Varoudakis & Marie-Ange VEganzonEs, 2003. "Real exchange rate and openness in emerging economies: Argentina in the long run," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 293-303.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2006. "How sensitive are Malaysia's bilateral trade flows to depreciation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1279-1286.
    7. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    10. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    11. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    12. Demirden, Tuvana & Pastine, Ivan, 1995. "Flexible exchange rates and the J-curve: An alternative approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 373-377, June.
    13. Kim, Yoonbai, 1996. "Income Effects on the Trade Balance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 464-469, August.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
    16. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    17. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
    18. Fabio Augusto Reis Gomes & Lourenco Senne Paz, 2005. "Can real exchange rate devaluation improve the trade balance? The 1990-1998 Brazilian case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 525-528.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2004. "New Zealand's trade balance: evidence of the J-curve and granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 351-354.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Durmus Ozdemir & Mustafa Kemal Gundogdu, 2015. "Simultaneity between export and import flows and the Marshall–Lerner condition: the Turkish case (1998–2013)," Discussion Papers 2015/01, Yasar University, Department of Economics.
    2. Sastre, Luis, 2012. "Simultaneity between export and import flows and the Marshall–Lerner condition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 879-883.
    3. Luis Sastre, 2018. "Marshall-Lerner Condition and the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: The Spanish Case," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 13, pages 29-38, August.
    4. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.
    5. Rosdiana Sijabat, 2022. "The Association of Economic Growth, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Capital Formation in Indonesia: Evidence from the Toda–Yamamoto Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-22, April.
    6. Luis Satre Jiménez, 2010. "Economías abiertas y condición de Marshall-Lerner," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 9, pages 1-8, November.
    7. Muhammad Omer & Junaid Kamal & Jakob Haan, 2023. "Does an exchange rate depreciation improve the trade balance of Pakistan?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 163-185, February.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    9. Razak, Najwa & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "The relationship between exchange rate and trade balance: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL approaches," MPRA Paper 112447, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.
    2. Gan-Ochir Doojav, 2018. "The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(4), pages 211-224, November.
    3. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
    4. Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
    5. Chomteu Kouam, Sorel Francine & Abo Ekomie, Alain & Bahouayila, Chancel, 2010. "Effet du taux de change réel sur la balance commerciale: le cas du Gabon [The Impact of Real Exchange Rates on the Trade Balance: The Case of Gabon]," MPRA Paper 38606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Shah, Anwar & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq, 2014. "Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Pakistan: An ARDL Co-integration Approach," MPRA Paper 57674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    8. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Real Exchange Rate and the Dynamics of Services Trade Balance in the UK: A Linear and Non-linear ARDL Analysis," MPRA Paper 106703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Huseyin Kalyoncu & Ilhan Ozturk & Seyfettin Artan & Kahraman Kalyoncu, 2009. "Devaluation and trade balance in Latin American countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 27(1), pages 115-128.
    10. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Test of the Marshall-Lerner Condition for Eight Selected Asian Countries and Policy Implications," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 91-98.
    11. Drama, Bedi Guy Herve, 2010. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Cote d’Ivoire: Evidence from the Cointegration Analysis and Error-Correction Models," MPRA Paper 21810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. George Georgopoulos, 2008. "The J-curve Revisited: An Empirical Analysis for Canada," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(3), pages 315-332, September.
    13. Yi‐Bin Chiu & Chia‐Hung Sun, 2009. "Economic interdependence and bilateral trade imbalance across the Taiwan Strait," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 411-432, September.
    14. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Somchith Souksavath & Sengchanh Chanthasene, 2018. "Investigating the Relationship between Trade Balance and the Exchange Rate: The Case of Laos’ Trade with Thailand," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 590-603, June.
    15. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jehanzeb Cheema, 2009. "Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Currency Depreciation On The Bilateral Trade Balance Between Pakistan And Her Major Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 19-41, June.
    17. Muhammad Omer & Junaid Kamal & Jakob Haan, 2023. "Does an exchange rate depreciation improve the trade balance of Pakistan?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 163-185, February.
    18. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    19. Nektarios A. Michail, 2018. "Estimating a Bilateral J‐curve between the UK and the Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(6), pages 757-769, December.
    20. Serdan Ongar & Dilek Ozdemir & Cem Isik, 2018. "Testing the J-Curve Hypothesis for the USA: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 16(1), pages 21-34.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:20:p:2571-2582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.