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Exchange rate policy and trade balance. A cointegration analysis of the argentine experience since 1962

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  • Matesanz Gómez, David
  • Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe

Abstract

Using multivariate cointegration tests for non-stationary data and vector error correction models, this paper examines the determinants of trade balance for Argentina over the last forty to fifty years. Our investigation confirms the existence of long-run relationships among trade balance, Real Exchange Rate (RER) and foreign and domestic incomes for Argentina during different real exchange rate management policies. Based on the estimations, the Marshall-Lerner condition is examined and, by means of impulse response functions, we trace the effect of a one-time shock to the RER on the trade balance checking the J-curve pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Matesanz Gómez, David & Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe, 2006. "Exchange rate policy and trade balance. A cointegration analysis of the argentine experience since 1962," MPRA Paper 151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:151
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/151/1/MPRA_paper_151.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Syed Mahmud & Aman Ullah & Eray Yucel, 2004. "Testing Marshall-Lerner condition: a non-parametric approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 231-236.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Christine Richaud & AristomEne Varoudakis & Marie-Ange VEganzonEs, 2003. "Real exchange rate and openness in emerging economies: Argentina in the long run," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 293-303.
    4. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2004. "New Zealand's trade balance: evidence of the J-curve and granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 351-354.
    6. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    7. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
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    Cited by:

    1. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.
    2. Sastre, Luis, 2012. "Simultaneity between export and import flows and the Marshall–Lerner condition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 879-883.
    3. Durmus Ozdemir & Mustafa Kemal Gundogdu, 2015. "Simultaneity between export and import flows and the Marshall–Lerner condition: the Turkish case (1998–2013)," Discussion Papers 2015/01, Yasar University, Department of Economics.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Argentina; Marshall-Lerner; J-Curve; cointegration and impulse response analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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