IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/151.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rate policy and trade balance. A cointegration analysis of the argentine experience since 1962

Author

Listed:
  • Matesanz Gómez, David
  • Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe

Abstract

Using multivariate cointegration tests for non-stationary data and vector error correction models, this paper examines the determinants of trade balance for Argentina over the last forty to fifty years. Our investigation confirms the existence of long-run relationships among trade balance, Real Exchange Rate (RER) and foreign and domestic incomes for Argentina during different real exchange rate management policies. Based on the estimations, the Marshall-Lerner condition is examined and, by means of impulse response functions, we trace the effect of a one-time shock to the RER on the trade balance checking the J-curve pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Matesanz Gómez, David & Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe, 2006. "Exchange rate policy and trade balance. A cointegration analysis of the argentine experience since 1962," MPRA Paper 151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:151
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/151/1/MPRA_paper_151.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Demirden, Tuvana & Pastine, Ivan, 1995. "Flexible exchange rates and the J-curve: An alternative approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 373-377, June.
    3. Syed Mahmud & Aman Ullah & Eray Yucel, 2004. "Testing Marshall-Lerner condition: a non-parametric approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 231-236.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Kim, Yoonbai, 1996. "Income Effects on the Trade Balance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 464-469, August.
    6. Wong Hock Tsen, 2006. "Is there a long-run relationship between trade balance and terms of trade? The case of Malaysia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 307-311.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
    8. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Examining the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate: the case of China's trade with the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 507-510.
    10. Christine Richaud & AristomEne Varoudakis & Marie-Ange VEganzonEs, 2003. "Real exchange rate and openness in emerging economies: Argentina in the long run," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 293-303.
    11. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2006. "How sensitive are Malaysia's bilateral trade flows to depreciation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1279-1286.
    13. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2004. "New Zealand's trade balance: evidence of the J-curve and granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 351-354.
    14. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    15. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    17. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.
    2. Sastre, Luis, 2012. "Simultaneity between export and import flows and the Marshall–Lerner condition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 879-883.
    3. Durmus Ozdemir & Mustafa Kemal Gundogdu, 2015. "Simultaneity between export and import flows and the Marshall–Lerner condition: the Turkish case (1998–2013)," Discussion Papers 2015/01, Yasar University, Department of Economics.
    4. Luis Sastre, 2018. "Marshall-Lerner Condition and the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: The Spanish Case," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 13, pages 29-38, August.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.
    2. Gan-Ochir Doojav, 2018. "The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(4), pages 211-224, November.
    3. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
    4. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    5. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    6. Asai Manabu & Peiris Shelton & McAleer Michael & Allen David E., 2020. "Cointegrated Dynamics for a Generalized Long Memory Process: Application to Interest Rates," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Gaolu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2020. "Effects of International Crude Oil Prices on Energy Consumption in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, July.
    8. João Leitão, 2004. "Demand Pull and Supply Push in Portuguese Cable Television," Econometrics 0411009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
    10. Albaladejo, Isabel P. & González-Martínez, María Isabel & Martínez-García, María Pilar, 2014. "Quality and endogenous tourism: An empirical approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 141-147.
    11. Chomteu Kouam, Sorel Francine & Abo Ekomie, Alain & Bahouayila, Chancel, 2010. "Effet du taux de change réel sur la balance commerciale: le cas du Gabon [The Impact of Real Exchange Rates on the Trade Balance: The Case of Gabon]," MPRA Paper 38606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    13. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Test of the Marshall-Lerner Condition for Eight Selected Asian Countries and Policy Implications," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 91-98.
    14. Haug, Alfred A. & MacKinnon, James G. & Michelis, Leo, 2000. "European Monetary Union: a cointegration analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-432, June.
    15. Drama, Bedi Guy Herve, 2010. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Cote d’Ivoire: Evidence from the Cointegration Analysis and Error-Correction Models," MPRA Paper 21810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2008. "Cointegration and dynamic linkages of international stock markets: an emerging market perspective," MPRA Paper 26986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Matei, Florin, 2014. "An empirical examination of stock market integration in EMU," MPRA Paper 60717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Elif Akbostanci, 2002. "Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve," ERC Working Papers 0205, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2002.
    19. George Georgopoulos, 2008. "The J-curve Revisited: An Empirical Analysis for Canada," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(3), pages 315-332, September.
    20. Yi-Bin Chiu & Chia-Hung Sun, 2009. "Economic interdependence and bilateral trade imbalance across the Taiwan Strait," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(4), pages 411-432, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Argentina; Marshall-Lerner; J-Curve; cointegration and impulse response analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.