IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v84y2024icp679-692.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vietnam's exports to Korea and the real exchange rate: Post-crisis evidence from the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Min-Joon

Abstract

In this study, the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate on Vietnam's exports to Korea were investigated using the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) model. As a result, the MTNARDL model exhibited enhanced estimation accuracy compared to the single-threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Furthermore, the aggregate bias problem was solved using individual export data for 16 major industries instead of relying on the overall export value data. The results revealed the substantial asymmetric impact of real exchange rate fluctuations in the short and long run. Fluctuations in the real exchange rate boosted Vietnam's exports to the Republic of Korea in the long run, with minimal negative influence. This indicates that the depreciation of the Vietnamese dong against the United States (US) dollar encouraged exports in some industries but limited exports in others. However, the short-term effect of the real exchange rate remains uncertain, as it could be either negative or positive depending on the industry and threshold level. The diverse impacts of the real exchange rate fluctuations on exports across industries were attributed to factors such as the capacity to absorb foreign exchange risks, product heterogeneity, and the ease of adjusting inputs and production for each sector. Therefore, these findings may help policymakers develop Vietnam-specific policies to address long- and short-term changes in the threshold levels of real exchange rate fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Min-Joon, 2024. "Vietnam's exports to Korea and the real exchange rate: Post-crisis evidence from the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 679-692.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:84:y:2024:i:c:p:679-692
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592624002406
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jong Woo Kang & Suzette Dagli, 2018. "International trade and exchange rates," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 84-105, January.
    2. Quang Dong Nguyen & Thi Ha Tran & Quang Huy Nguyen, 2022. "Do Changes in the Exchange Rate Have an Asymmetric Effect on the Trade Balance between Vietnam and Japan?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 59-76, January.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hadise Fariditavana, 2016. "Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-Curve Phenomenon," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 51-70, February.
    5. Matiur Rahman & Muhammad Mustafa & Daryl Burckel, 1997. "Dynamics of the yen-dollar real exchange rate and the US-Japan real trade balance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 661-664.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Malaysia-China commodity trade," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 470-486.
    7. Irandoust, Manuchehr & Ekblad, Kristin & Parmler, Johan, 2006. "Bilateral trade flows and exchange rate sensitivity: Evidence from likelihood-based panel cointegration," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 170-183, June.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Sy-Hoa Ho & Trung-Thanh Nguyen & Nguyen To-The, 2023. "On the (a)symmetric effects of real exchange rate on trade flows: new evidence from US–Vietnam trade balance at the industry level," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 949-971, July.
    10. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2015. "Asymmetric impact of crude price on oil product pricing in the United States: An application of multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 436-443.
    11. Thorbecke, Willem & Sengonul, Ahmet, 2023. "The impact of exchange rates on Turkish imports and exports," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 231-249.
    12. David Matesanz & Guadalupe Fugarolas, 2009. "Exchange rate policy and trade balance: a cointegration analysis of the Argentine experience since 1962," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2571-2582.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Byrne, Joseph P. & Darby, Julia & MacDonald, Ronald, 2008. "US trade and exchange rate volatility: A real sectoral bilateral analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 238-259, March.
    15. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda & Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Mexican bilateral trade and the J-curve: An application of the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 23-40.
    16. Willem Thorbecke & Hanjiang Zhang, 2009. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes On China'S Labour‐Intensive Manufacturing Exports," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 398-409, August.
    17. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2011. "How sensitive is U.S. agricultural trade to the bilateral exchange rate? Evidence from bulk, intermediate, and consumer‐oriented products," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 387-403, May.
    18. Gor A. Khachatryan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2020. "Export Growth Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Armenia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 493-509, July.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
    20. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
    21. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    22. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Siong-Hook, Law & Tze-Haw, Chan, 2015. "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 253-259.
    23. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    24. Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, September.
    25. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Iqbal, Javed & Salam, Muhammad, 2016. "Short run and long run effects of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between Pakistan and Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 131-142.
    26. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto, 2019. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A New Evidence From Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, June.
    27. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    28. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Malaysia-EU trade: evidence from industry data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 339-365, May.
    29. Xu, Jia & Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2022. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate uncertainty on China’s bilateral trade with its major partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 653-669.
    30. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2021. "Does the real exchange rate play any role in the trade between Mexico and Canada? An asymmetric analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
    31. Swarnjit Arora & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "Bilateral J-curve between India and her trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1037-1041.
    32. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    33. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2017. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-103.
    34. Baek, Jungho & Nam, Soojoong, 2021. "The South Korea–China trade and the bilateral real exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from 33 industries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 463-475.
    35. A. Kim, 2009. "An empirical analysis of Korea's trade imbalances with the US and Japan," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 211-226.
    36. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan's bilateral trade flows," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    37. Baek, Jungho, 2014. "Exchange rate effects on Korea–U.S. bilateral trade: A new look," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 214-221.
    38. Baek, Jungho, 2013. "Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 856-862.
    39. Ilhan Ozturk & Huseyin Kalyoncu, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: An Empirical Investigation from Cross-country Comparison," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 499-513.
    40. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Masatci, Kaan & Pılbeam, Keith, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 133-140.
    41. Lal, Madan & Kumar, Satish & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Rai, Varun Kumar & Lim, Weng Marc, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    42. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
    43. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
    44. Zaghdoudi, Taha & Tissaoui, Kais & Maaloul, Mohamed Hédi & Bahou, Younès & Kammoun, Niazi, 2023. "Asymmetric connectedness between oil price, coal and renewable energy consumption in China: Evidence from Fourier NARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    45. Keith E. Maskus, 1986. "Exchange rate risk and U.S. trade: a sectoral analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 71(Mar), pages 16-28.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 64-97, March.
    2. Baek, Jungho & Nam, Soojoong, 2021. "The South Korea–China trade and the bilateral real exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from 33 industries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 463-475.
    3. Unggul Heriqbaldi & Miguel Angel Esquivias & Rossanto Dwi Handoyo & Alfira Cahyaning Rifami & Hilda Rohmawati, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows in Indonesia and ten main trade partners: asymmetric effects," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 708-739, October.
    4. Jonathan M. Chipili, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows in Zambia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 55-66, March.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 51-102, February.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ahmed Usman & Sana Ullah, 2023. "Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade Between Pakistan and China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 510-534, June.
    7. Ho Hoang Gia Bao & Hoang Phong Le, 2022. "The Roles of Vehicle Currency and Real Effective Exchange Rates in the Trade of Every ASEAN Member With the EU-28," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    8. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    9. Dogukan Tarakci & Fevzi Olmez & Dilek Durusu-Ciftci, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility and export in Turkey: Does the nexus vary across the type of commodity?," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 22(2), pages 77-89.
    10. Bilgin, Cevat, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 101316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto, 2019. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A New Evidence From Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, June.
    12. Obumneke Bob Muoneke & Kingsley Ikechukwu Okere & Favour Chidinma Onuoha, 2023. "Extreme exchange rate dynamics and export trade in the selected oil-exporting countries in Africa. Multiple asymmetric threshold non-linear ARDL approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 854-877, August.
    13. Sung-Ko Li & Chun-Kei Tsang, 2020. "The Impacts Of Biased Resource Allocation On The Effectiveness Of Official Development Assistance," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(01), pages 239-256, March.
    14. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    15. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
    16. Jungho Baek & Jee Hee Yoon, 2023. "The Korea‐Vietnam trade and the bilateral exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade data," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 124-148, March.
    17. Yusaku Nishimura & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "China’s Exchange-Rate Regime Reform and Trade Between China and the Eurozone," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 450-467, January.
    18. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Jane Korinek, 2011. "To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade?," OECD Trade Policy Papers 119, OECD Publishing.
    19. Mei-Se Chien & Nur Setyowati & Chih-Yang Cheng, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Bilateral Trade Between Taiwan And Indonesia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(04), pages 857-888, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export; Financial post-crisis; MTNARDL model; Real exchange rate; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:84:y:2024:i:c:p:679-692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.