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US Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Real Sectoral Bilateral Analysis

  • Joseph P. Byrne
  • Julia Darby
  • Ronald MacDonald

In this paper we consider the impact of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral US trade (both exports and imports) using sectoral data. Amongst the novelties in our approach are the use of sectoral industrial price indices, rather than an aggregate price index, and the construction of the sectoral groupings, which is based on economic and econometric criteria. We find that separating trade into differentiated goods and homogeneous goods results in the most appropriate sectoral division, and we also report evidence to suggest that exchange rate volatility has a robust and significantly negative effect across sectors, although it is strongest for exports of differentiated goods.

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Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2006_9.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2006_9
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  1. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December.
  2. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 629-644, April.
  3. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
  4. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
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  6. Belanger, Denis & Gutierrez, Sylvia & Racette, Daniel & Raynauld, Jacques, 1992. "The impact of exchange rate variability on trade flows: Further results on sectoral U.S. imports from Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 61-82.
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  17. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2004. "Non-Europe : the magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla99004a, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  18. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  19. Nicolas Péridy, 2003. "Exchange rate volatility, sectoral trade, and the aggregation bias," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 389-418, September.
  20. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," NBER Working Papers 4335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2000. "Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 488, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Jul 2002.
  22. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  23. George S. Tavlas, 1997. "The International Use of the US Dollar: An Optimum Currency Area Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(6), pages 709-747, 09.
  24. Christian Broda & John Romalis, 2011. "Identifying the Relationship Between Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20, pages 79-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
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  29. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521522717 is not listed on IDEAS
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