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Exchange rate volatility and trade: The role of credit constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Shu Lin

    (Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Kang Shi

    (Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Haichun Ye

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This study examines the role of credit constraints in determining the trade effect of exchange rate volatility. We first develop a small open economy general equilibrium model with credit constraints. In our model, constrained firms respond to real depreciations and appreciations in an asymmetric way, and exchange rate volatility reduces their exports on average. The effect of exchange rate volatility on unconstrained firms' exports, however, is ambiguous. Overall, exchange rate volatility has a more negative impact on constrained firms. In a large sector-level bilateral trade dataset, we find robust empirical evidence supporting the predictions of the model. We show that financially more constrained sectors have a more negative exposure of their trade volumes to exchange rate volatility. Moreover, the estimated trade effects of exchange rate volatility vary substantially across sectors and can be either positive or negative depending on the degree of credit constraints. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Shu Lin & Kang Shi & Haichun Ye, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and trade: The role of credit constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 203-222, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:16-243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.05.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate volatility; Trade; Credit constraints; Sectoral heterogeneity;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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