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Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Macroeconomic Instability

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  • Martin Uribe

Abstract

Using an optimizing model of a small open economy, this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of PPP rules whereby the government increases the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate defined as the price of tradables in terms of nontradables is below its long-run level and reduces the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate is above its long-run level. The paper shows that the mere existence of such a rule can generate aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling revisions in expectations. The result is shown to obtain in both flexible- and sticky-price environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Uribe, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Macroeconomic Instability," NBER Working Papers 9294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "PPP Exchange-Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 158-165, February.
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    8. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2004. "PPP rules, macroeconomic (In)stability and learning," International Finance Discussion Papers 814, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Marco Airaudo & Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 16/55, International Monetary Fund.
    3. repec:red:issued:16-243 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Eric Schaling & James Bullard, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 362, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bostjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Linfluence du régime de change sur linflation dans les pays adhérents," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 51-61.
    6. James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in a Two-Block World Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1585-1612, December.
    7. Bullard, James & Schaling, Eric, 2006. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in the open economy," Working Paper Series 611, European Central Bank.
    8. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2009. "Ppp Exchange Rate Rules, Macroeconomic (In)Stability, And Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1103-1128, November.
    9. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy Fuerst, 2007. "Asset Prices, Nominal Rigidities, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 256-275, April.
    10. Airaudo, Marco, 2014. "Currency substitution, risk premia and the Taylor principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 202-217.
    11. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    12. Jason Nassios & James A. Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2016. "Superannuation and Macroeconomic Growth and Stability," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-267, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    13. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bo??tjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-674, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    14. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Does trade openness matter for aggregate instability?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1165-1192, July.
    15. Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2008. "Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262123061, January.
    16. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute.
    17. Kiyutsevskaya, Anna & Narkevich, Sergei & Trunin, Pavel, 2016. "The Transformation of the Role and Tasks of the Central Bank (Monetary Authorities) in the Modern Economy," Working Papers 2136, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    18. Shu Lin & Kang Shi & Haichun Ye, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and trade: The role of credit constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 203-222, October.
    19. Airaudo, Marco, 2012. "Endogenous Dollarization, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Taylor Principle," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    20. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May.
    21. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Candidate Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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