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Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Macroeconomic Instability

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  • Martin Uribe

Abstract

Using an optimizing model of a small open economy, this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of PPP rules whereby the government increases the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate defined as the price of tradables in terms of nontradables is below its long-run level and reduces the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate is above its long-run level. The paper shows that the mere existence of such a rule can generate aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling revisions in expectations. The result is shown to obtain in both flexible- and sticky-price environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Uribe, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Macroeconomic Instability," NBER Working Papers 9294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9294
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bostjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Linfluence du régime de change sur linflation dans les pays adhérents," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 51-61.
    2. James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in a Two‐Block World Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1585-1612, December.
    3. Eric Schaling & James Bullard, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 362, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Konstantin Styrin & Oleg Zamulin, 2012. "A Real Exchange Rate Based Phillips Curve," Working Papers w0179, New Economic School (NES).
    5. Mr. Marco Airaudo & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/055, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy Fuerst, 2007. "Asset Prices, Nominal Rigidities, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 256-275, April.
    7. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bo??tjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-674, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    8. Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2008. "Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262123061, December.
    9. Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Киюцевская, Анна) & Narkevich, Sergei (Наркевич, Сергей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "The Transformation of the Role and Tasks of the Central Bank (Monetary Authorities) in the Modern Economy [Трансформация Роли И Задач Центральных Банков (Монетарных Властей) В Современной Экономике," Working Papers 2136, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    10. Shu Lin & Kang Shi & Haichun Ye, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and trade: The role of credit constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 203-222, October.
    11. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Boštjan & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Candidate Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2004. "PPP rules, macroeconomic (In)stability and learning," International Finance Discussion Papers 814, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Claus Rabe & Harris Selod, "undated". "Place-based economic policies: international lessons for South Africa," Working Papers 11, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    14. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    15. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2009. "Ppp Exchange Rate Rules, Macroeconomic (In)Stability, And Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1103-1128, November.
    16. Airaudo, Marco, 2014. "Currency substitution, risk premia and the Taylor principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 202-217.
    17. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, New Economic School (NES).
    18. Jason Nassios & James A. Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2016. "Superannuation and Macroeconomic Growth and Stability," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-267, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    19. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Does trade openness matter for aggregate instability?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1165-1192, July.
    20. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute.
    21. Airaudo, Marco, 2012. "Endogenous Dollarization, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Taylor Principle," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    22. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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