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Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in the open economy

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  • Bullard, James
  • Schaling, Eric

Abstract

We study how determinacy and learnability of global rational expectations equilibrium may be affected by monetary policy in a simple, two country, New Keynesian framework. The two blocks may be viewed as the U.S. and Europe, or as regions within the euro zone. We seek to understand how monetary policy choices may interact across borders to help or hinder the creation of a unique rational expectations equilibrium worldwide which can be learned by market participants. We study cases in which optimal policies are being pursued country by country as well as some forms of cooperation. We find that open economy considerations may alter conditions for determinacy and learnability relative to closed economy analyses, and that new concerns can arise in the analysis of classic topics such as the desirability of exchange rate targeting and monetary policy cooperation. JEL Classification: E52, F33

Suggested Citation

  • Bullard, James & Schaling, Eric, 2006. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in the open economy," Working Paper Series 611, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006611
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bask, Mikael & Selander, Carina, 2007. "Robust Taylor rules in an open economy with heterogeneous expectations and least squares learnig," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2011. "Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1685-1706, December.
    4. Mikael Bask, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(4), pages 338-354, November.
    5. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2008. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy: Lessons from Japan," Working Papers UWEC-2008-12-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2008.
    6. William A. Barnett & Unal Eryilmaz, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Determinacy: An Inquiry into Open Economy New Keynesian Macrodynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 217-253, April.
    7. William Barnett & Unal Eryilmaz, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Determinacy: An Inquiry in Open Economy New Keynesian Framework," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202203, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    8. Bask, Mikael & Selander, Carina, 2007. "Robust Taylor rules in an open economy with heterogeneous expectations and least squares learnig," Research Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bask, Mikael, 2009. "Instrument rules in monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 97-111.
    11. Yasuo Hirose, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Sunspot Fluctuation in the U.S. and the Euro Area," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    12. Luis-Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta, 2008. "Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1033-1063, August.
    13. Yu‐chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2008. "Adaptive Learning And Monetary Policy In An Open Economy: Lessons From Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 405-430, October.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. William, Barnett & Hu, Jingxian, 2017. "Capital Control, Exchange Rate Regime, and Monetary Policy: Indeterminacy and Bifurcation," MPRA Paper 81450, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2012. "Interest Rate Control Rules and Macroeconomic Stability in a Heterogeneous Two-Country Model," MPRA Paper 37017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Heinz‐Peter Spahn, 2007. "Exchange Rate Stabilisation, Learning And The Taylor Principle," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 136-151, June.
    18. Bullard, James & Singh, Aarti, 2008. "Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 34-47, October.
    19. Bask, Mikael, 2009. "Instrument rules in monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 97-111.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    indeterminacy; international policy coordination; monetary policy rules; new open economy macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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